The Welsh National is the highlight of the calendar year for Chepstow, so it is no surprise to see them resort to bringing the race forward on race day. With the weather forecast not favourable it could end up being a wise decision especially if the predicted rain arrives as there is every chance the card could get abandoned midway through.

This valuable Grade 3 handicap has a history of being won by a horse that relishes a stamina sapping test, with conditions likely to be very testing, this year will be no different with emphasis on stamina being crucial. As expected this years renewal is an ultra competitive field with 3 horses vying for favouritism at the top of the market at 9/1.

With plenty of pace upfront I’m sure the race will be ran at a high tempo, providing not only a proper stamina test but also a jumping test. With that in mind any horses with slight questions marks over there jumping may get found out early on, with the pace likely to be at its quickest in the early stage of the race.

The first of the favourites is second season chaser Cogry. This son of Kings Thearte ran a stormer first time out at the Paddy Power meeting where the 7 year old gelding was staying on strong to finish 4th, less than 3l behind the winner Sausalito Sunrise. In the same race Upswing finished 2nd a mere length in front of today’s selection, who re-opposes on 1lb worse terms, which might not seem a lot but the way Cogry was finishing off his race that day it would suggest that with a more testing race the form should be reversed. Another horse that re-opposes from the same race is Shotgun Paddy, who finished 1.5l behind Cogry. This 9 year old gelding is now 1lb better off with the selection, but with the way Cogry flashed past him up the testing hill of Cheltenham, would suggest he needs more of a swing in the weights to reverse form.

Last years winner Emperors choice will relish the underfoot conditions and with stamina being no question, this son of Flemensfirth seems to tick the right boxes. However he won last years race off 131 by a shd to re-opposing Benvolio, but is now 10lbs higher. With that hike in the weights putting him on a career high mark and the fact he’s 9, suggesting improvement is doubtful he will find it hard to retain his crown. Benvolio has now dropped back down to a mark of 139, which he ran off in last years renewal, meaning he is now 10lbs better off with Emperors choice for losing by a shd. However his recent form is nothing to shout about (PP5) so I wouldn’t even consider backing him with your money, let alone mine.

Mountanious has now dropped to the same mark he won the Welsh national on back in 2013, however he was 8 back then and for the fact this now 11 year old gelding hasn’t won a race since or even looked like winning I find it hard to suggest many positives, even if he is  joint favourite.

Tour Des Champs ran a cracking race last time out after being off the course for almost 21 months when staying on strongly to collar Top Wood near the finish. My concern for this son of Robin Des Champs would be the fact he had a very hard race after a lengthy absence and with that only being a month ago, I wouldn’t be convinced he can back that up in a tougher race.

Out of the remainder of the field Return Spring would be interesting if rediscovering his form. This 9 year old gelding looked a promising chaser in his first 3 races over the larger obstacles, but has ran disappointing ever since pulling up in a competitive handicap in January last year.

Selection: Cogry 9/1

Everything seems to be in favour for this 7 year old gelding, with the progressive profile to how well he stays. With the likelihood of the race being ran to suit this strong stayer, with them going hard upfront for him to then pick them off coming into the home straight, he looks sure to run a big race. With this race being the target all along I expect improvement from his first run of the season and testing conditions will not phase him having won at Chepstow on heavy last season.