2019/2020 NH Horses To Follow

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Bright Forecast 5yo

Trainer:- Ben Pauling

Rating:- 149(H)     Form:- 1123

Made a successful start to life under rules winning 2 novice hurdles on the bounce. Tasted defeat for the first time to the hands of Mister Fisher at haydock, lacking the gears to challenge the winner up the home straight. Stepped up in trip on his last outing when coming third at the festival. Looks sure to be a force over fences and with improvement expected after only having 4 runs to date under rules he could well go to the top.

Eden Du Houx 5yo 

Trainer: David Pipe

Rating:- N/A     Form:- 111

Unbeaten in all three starts this son of Irish Wells has looked impressive. Form of his ascot win looks strong with 3rd glancing queen coming out and winning at Aintree. Looks the type to improve for obstacles even more so when tackling fences the year after. I’d expect this gelding to excel over 2m4f+ as he looks a staying chaser in the making.

Gardens Of Babylon 4yo

Trainer:- Joseph O’Brien

Rating:- 141(H)     Form:- 1308

Not exactly the best of form but the reason why this son of Camelot makes the list is hes been crying out for a step up in trip and I’m fully expecting big improvement when he does. If he turns up in a handicap over 2m4f+ off his current mark then he will be hard to beat.

Honeysuckle 5yo

Trainer:- Henry De Bromhead

Rating:- 150(H)     Form:- 1111

This mare was one of the most exciting novices last year, with her demolition job in her latest outing the highlight giving her a well earned grade 1 win. If she stays over hurdles then the 6/1 for the mares must be taken as I can’t see any mare beating her. If they decide to take her to fences then the geldings will be struggling to give her 7lbs. I think she could be the real deal, so wherever she goes my money will go too.

Kalashnikov 6yo

Trainer:- Amy Murphy

Rating:- 155 (C) 152(H)     Form:- 22U1

The trainer finally stepped this gelding up in trip on his last outing and it turned out to be the right decision as expected when winning the grade 1 novice at Aintree. With a mark of 155 over fences I still think hes capable of winning a big handicap, maybe the Betvictor Gold cup.

Kildisart 7yo 

Trainer:- Ben Pauling

Rating:- 156(C) 142(H)     Form:- 1141

Another horse to improve lots for a step up in trip. Finished a competitive 4th in the JLT, staying on at the end. Tackled 3 mile for the first time at Aintree and won impressively. Beat Mister Malarky that day by 5 lengths and that horse is being talked up for the ladbrokes trophy yet only has a 2lb swing. Kildisart has plenty more improvement come due to being unexposed over staying trips. Could easily see him being aimed at a handicap hurdle first to save his mark, plus the 142 looks tempting to exploit over hurdles. 25/1 for the ladbrokes trophy looks a great EW bet.

Malone Road 5yo

Trainer:- Gordon Elliot

Rating:- N/A     Form:- 111

Easily the horse I’m most looking forward to, has looked every bit of a superstar in his races. Can only see him going right to the top over hurdles and for me the 16s available  for the supreme is too tempting. Looks the speedier type than his stablemate Envoi Allen, which makes me even more confident the 2 mile contest will be the choice.

Minella Indo 6yo

Trainer: Henry De Bromhead

Rating:- 152(H)     Form:- 3211

Certainly an obvious one to choose from last year but he was so good I couldn’t leave him out as I fully expect him to keep progressing an win the RSA come march next year. 14s available for that contest looks a steal and is well worth taking. Having won the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham he then backed that up at punchestown to show it was no fluke having gone to the festival as a maiden.

No Comment 8yo

Trainer:- Philip Hobbs

Rating:- 137(C) 145(H)     Form:- 3655

Despite being 8 rising 9 this season he has only ran 4 times over fences so is certainly not fully exposed just yet with 2 of those races being at back to back festivals. His latest run when coming 5th in the Kim Muir was very promising and certainly looks one for all the top staying chasing handicaps with the welsh national perhaps an early season target.

Overthetop 5yo

Trainer:- Olly Murphy

Rating:- N/A     Form:11

Olly Murphy has took to training like a duck to water with an extremely impressive first couple of seasons. He looks to have revealed another gem regards to this son of flemensfirth. Winning impressively on his sole start under rules in what looked an above average bumper he looks sure to make his presence felt over hurdles this coming season.

Saldier 5yo

Trainer:- Willie Mullins

Rating:- 153(H)     Form:- 531F

I think this gelding could end up being the forgotten horse with Klassical Dream his stablemate being all the rage for the champion hurdle, however on his latest outing he was certainly travelling the best before his last flight fall and we all know what the winner of that race has gone to do. The fact he is only 5 shows more improvement should come this season. 20/1 looks a good EW bet for the champion hurdle.

Secret Investor 7yo

Trainer:- Paul Nicholls

Rating:- 150(C) 145(H)     Form:- 2411

This son of kayf tara looks the typical progressive Paul nicholls horse with his last two outings showing big signs of a very good horse. Still only 7 and 5 runs over fences under his belt he looks sure to take another step forward this coming season. I could easily see him winning a big handicap off his current mark for example the Caspian Caviar at cheltenham December meeting.

Shishkin 5yo

Trainer:- Nicky Henderson

Rating:- N/A     Form:- 311

The form of his bumper win is nothing to shout about but its the way he put the race to bed in readily fashion when asked to lengthen. He showed signs of a very good horse when doing so and hes certainly in the right hands to get the best out of him. He looks a speedy type so I’m sure he will start off over 2 mile.

Southern Sam 5yo

Trainer:- Oliver Sherwood

Rating:- 124(H)     Form:-3251

This gelding has some strong novice form from last season behind the likes of Beakstown and Pistol Whipped. He rounded off a good season with a convincing win on his latest outing. Trainer has said he will go chasing in this coming season, I don’t think he will be reaching the top level, but something like the novice handicap on the opening day of the festival could well be on agenda for this son of black sam bellamy. Will certainly need to win a few races to get high enough in the ratings to do so but I fully expect him to capitalise on 124 over fences.

Thyme Hill 5yo

Trainer: Philip Hobbs

Rating:- N/A     Form:-123

He certainly made an eye catching run on his latest outing in the champion bumper staying on strongly up the stiff finish turning the form on his previous conqueror Master Debonair. This gelding scream stayer to me and I fully expect him to be upped to 3 mile by the end of the season with the Albert Bartlett being possibly his main aim having already good cheltenham form.

Antepost bets:

Kildisart 25/1 – Ladbrokes Trophy

Malone Road 16/1 – Supreme

Saldier 20/1 – Champion Hurdle

Minella Indo 14/1 – RSA

 

2018/2019 NH Horses To Follow

Another season is fast approaching and it’s that time of year again where we see all the horses to follow lists appear. Once again I’m really looking forward to the new season and can’t wait to see the potential new stars.

Last seasons horses to follow hit once again over a thousand views and thankfully the list produced plenty of winners, with the following being the key highlights:

  • Samcro winning the Neptune Novices Hurdle, tipped at 14/1
  • Grade 1 winner Death Duty
  • 14/1 Handicap Winner Last Goodbye
  • Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle Winner William Henry
  • JLT Third Benatar

Now for the new list…..

Any Second Now – 6yo

Sire: Oscar     Dam: Pretty Neat

Trainer: T M Walsh     Owner: John P McManus

Official Rating: 142C     Expected Rating: 155C

Ideal Distance: 3m+     Form: 2238

Target: Paddy Power Chase     Festival Target: Ultima Handicap Chase

Only 2 horses have stayed on the list from last season and this son of Oscar is one of them. If you follow me on twitter you would have known how much I fancied this horse at Cheltenham, however it wasn’t meant to be with the gelding running an adequate race in 8th. I’m still certain he has a big race in him off his mark of 142 and once stepped up to 3 mile I think he can capitalise

 

Benatar – 6yo

Sire: Beneficial     Dam: Carrigeen Lily

Trainer: Gary Moore     Owner: Ashley Head

Official Rating: 149C     Expected Rating: 162C

Ideal Distance: 2m4f+     Form: 1113

Target: BetVictor Gold Cup     Festival Target: Ryanair

This son of Beneficial is one of the 2nd season chasers I’m most looking forward to. He showed high class form last season with his 3rd in the JLT being his best run to date. However the result doesn’t tell the full story as the gelding pulled very hard for most of the race and finished lame so for him to finish 3rd under those circumstances shows he has plenty of class. His current mark of 149 looks ready to be blown out of the water and if he turns up for the BetVictor Gold Cup or any handicap that is I see him very hard to beat.

 

Black Op – 7yo

Sire: Sandmason     Dam: Afar Story

Trainer: Tom George     Owner: R S Brookhouse

Official Rating: 152H     Expected Rating: 158C

Ideal Distance: 3m     Form: 1221

Target: Feltham     Festival Target: RSA

Barring Samcro this gelding is the one I’m most looking forward to going over fences this season. He showed a very high standard of form over the smaller obstacles last season only being denied by Samcro for festival glory. He looks to be crying out for 3mile and if he adapts to the new code then I think he will go right to the top. 16/1 looks a great price for the RSA and I’ll definitely be taking it.

 

Commander Of Fleet – 4yo

Sire: Fame And Glory     Dam: Coonagh Cross

Trainer: Gordon Elliot     Owner: Gigginstown House Stud

Official Rating: N/A     Expected Rating: 155H

Ideal Distance: 2m4f     Form: 11

Target: Lawlors Hotel Novice Hurdle     Festival Target: Neptune Novices Hurdle

This 4yo gelding made a big impression on rules debut when making light work of the Goffs Land Rover bumper at the punchestown festival where he scored by an impressive 8 1/2 lengths. As expected he has a high reputation and if they decide to send him over hurdles then I think he could go straight to the top. However it is possible with him only being a 4yo they might keep the gelding to bumpers for another season, which will make me hold fire on backing the 16s for the Neptune…. just yet.

 

Delta Work – 5yo

Sire: Network     Dam: Robbe

Trainer: Gordon Elliot     Owner: Gigginstown House Stud

Official Rating: 152H     Expected Rating: 167H

Ideal Distance: 3m     Form: 4312

Target: Squared Financial Christmas Hurdle     Festival Target: Stayers Hurdle

The best way to describe this 5yo gelding would be progressive, as with every run his form kept on improving, with his last run being his best where he was only just denied in Grade 1 company at Punchestown. Always a chance this horse goes novice chasing but the fact he’s only 5 and the stayers division over hurdles is always questionable I don’t see why they wouldn’t try this route. The 33/1 on offer for him is worth taking the gamble with.

 

Diamond Guy – 5yo

Sire: Konig Turf     Dam: Unique Chance

Trainer: Paul Nicholls     Owner: Executors & Trustees Of C G Roach Estate

Official Rating: 133H     Expected Rating: 146C

Ideal Distance: 2m4f+     Form: 4211

Target: Ascot Underwriting Chase Handicap     Festival Target: Close Brothers Novice

For me this is a typical Paul Nicholls horse with the fact he’s definitely a chaser in the making. He had a light campaign last season only having 3 runs over hurdles but I’m hoping that’s been the plan all along allowing some pounds to play with in the handicap before the festival come March. The Close Brothers Novice is always a notable handicap plot by many of the training ranks with Paul included and I think this could be another one.

 

Didtheyleaveuoutto – 5yo

Sire: Presenting     Dam: Pretty Puttens

Trainer: Nick Gifford     Owner: John P McManus

Official Rating: N/A     Expected Rating: 145H

Ideal Distance: 2m-2m4f     Form: 110

Target: Betfair Hurdle     Festival Target: Supreme Novices Hurdle

I strongly fancied this horse for the champion bumper last season but unfortunately the ground went against him that day as good ground is key to him being at this best. Previous to that outing he looked very good when beating a very good field at Ascot including the highly regarded Bullionaire. As stated before ground is key to him so the betfair might be ambitious with the fact its normally run on soft ground. The spring festivals will be where this horse shines, so I fully expect him to start the season early and then have a break mid winter to return in spring.

 

Downtown Getaway – 5yo

Sire: Getaway     Dam: Shang A Lang

Trainer: Nicky Henderson     Owner:

Official Rating: N/A     Expected Rating: 148H

Ideal Distance: 2m4f+     Form: 1

Target: Navan Novice Hurdle     Festival Target: Neptune Novices Hurdle

Not much to go on with this gelding having only ran the once, however the son of Getaway made a deep impression when destroying a competitive bumper by 12 lengths. He’s obviously not the easiest of horses to train the fact we haven’t seen him since, but if nothing too serious has kept him from the track then I could easily see him make his presence felt over timber.

 

Feel My Pulse – 4yo

Sire: Stowaway     Dam: Zenaide

Trainer: Gordon Elliot     Owner:

Official Rating: N/A     Expected Rating: N/A

Ideal Distance: 2m     Form: 1

Target: Goffs Future Stars Flat Race     Festival Target: N/A

This son of Stowaway hasn’t ran under rules yet but was oh so impressive in his only PTP where he despatched a field easily by 15 lengths, with the third subsequently winning next time out. He will most likely have a season in bumpers this time around and I fully expect him to race in the top grade but perhaps leave Cheltenham for another year.

 

Hawthorn Cottage – 5yo

Sire: Gold Well     Dam: Miss Kikeel

Trainer: Amy Murphy     Owner: Melbourne 10 Racing

Official Rating: N/A     Expected Rating: 144H

Ideal Distance: 2m4f+     Form: 1321

Target: Novice Hurdle     Festival Target: Martin Pipe

This 5yo gelding got off the mark on his third time of asking under rules winning a 19 runner bumper at the back end of the season at Cheltenham. The form looks of a good standard beating several previous winners. Amy Murphy enjoyed a brilliant season last year with Kalashnikov being the star name and she will be hoping this fella can follow suit over timber, however the son of Gold Well looks much more of a stayer than his stable mate.

 

If The Cap Fits – 6yo

Sire: Milan     Dam: Derravaragh Sayra

Trainer: Harry Fry     Owner: Paul & Claire Rooney

Official Rating: 147     Expected Rating: 160C

Ideal Distance: 2m     Form: 4111

Target: Wayward Lad Novices Chase     Festival Target: Arkle

Unfortunately this son of Milan picked up and injury at crucial time last season ruling him out of all the spring festivals. That injury was a muscle tear, so nothing too serious but no need to rush a horse with this potential back. I’m excited to see this gelding over fences and to continue his progression to the top. His form over timber before the injury looks very strong with numerous of subsequent winners coming out from his races including the highly regarded Diese Des Bieffes. The 20/1 available for the Arkle is to tempting to miss.

 

Rockpoint – 5yo

Sire: Shirocco     Dam: Tinagoodnight

Trainer: Colin Tizzard     Owner: John and Heather Snook

Official Rating: 121     Expected Rating: 135H

Ideal Distance: 2m4f+     Form: 3272

Target: Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle      Festival Target: Coral Cup

This 7 race maiden may seem a strange inclusion to my list however parts of this geldings form looks strong enough to suggest that a handicap off this mark is workable. The improvement that I’m expecting from the horse will be when he starts to tackle longer trips as he lacks the speed for the minimum trip to get his head in front.

 

Smaoineamh Alainn – 6yo

Sire: Shantou     Dam: Dathuil

Trainer: Robert Walford     Owner: Yeo Racing Partnership

Official Rating: 135H     Expected Rating: 145H/C

Ideal Distance: 2m+     Form: 111P

Target: Ladbroke Handicap Hurdle     Festival Target: County Hurdle

Before pulling up in the county hurdle this gelding was unbeaten over timber showing solid form including a handicap win beating the resilient Remiluc who subsequently went on to win and come 2nd in the county hurdle. With that in mind the son of Shantou most likely didn’t run his race at Cheltenham having being off the track since December. His unchanged mark of 135 looks still very workable and I fully expect him to take advantage of it.

 

Tower Bridge – 5yo

Sire: High Chaparral     Dam: Walkamia

Trainer: Joseph P O’Brien     Owner: John P McManus

Official Rating: 143     Expected Rating: 152C

Ideal Distance: 3m+     Form: 4153

Target: Neville Hotels Novice     Festival Target: National Hunt Challenge Cup

Despite winning a grade 1 this gelding was perhaps underestimated in the spring festival and despite not winning he ran with huge credit, with his latest outing when 3rd to Santini at Aintree being his best. This Joseph O’Brien trained gelding looks to be crying out for the 4miler and looks tailor made for it.

 

Umndeni – 4yo

Sire: Balko     Dam: Marie Royale

Trainer: Philip Hobbs     Owner: St Quinton, D L Whateley & Syder

Official Rating: N/A     Expected Rating: 140H

Ideal Distance: 2m4f+     Form: 1

Target: EBF Final   Festival Target: N/A

This Philip Hobbs trained gelding is closely rated to the 2018 Ryanair winner Balko Des Flo and made a very good impression on debut when winning readily at Warwick beating a good yard stick in Morning Vicar who already held some good form. Philip Hobbs had a torrid time of it last season never really getting going and I’m sure he’s hoping for better luck this time around and I fully expect the son of Balko to help towards a better season.

 

Well Set Up – 5yo

Sire: Gold Well     Dam: Such A Set Up

Trainer: Mark Fahey     Owner: Ms Jean Corrigan

Official Rating: N/A     Expected Rating: 145H

Ideal Distance: 2m4f+     Form: 1

Target: Leopardstown 2m6f Grade 1     Festival Target: Albert Bartlett

Another son of Gold Well to make the list and another very promising gelding for the new season. Despite only running the once last season he made a good start to his career under rules when scooting clear at Down Royal winning by 11 lengths. The form of that race looks to be questionable but he couldn’t have won any easier. I fully expect him to turn into a good stayer over timber winning a maiden and then tackling all the top races.

 

Cheltenham Festival Lucky 31:

If The Cap Fits – Arkle 20/1

Commander of Fleet – Neptune 16/1

Delta Work – Stayers Hurdle 33/1

Black Op – RSA 16/1

Tower Bridge – 4 Miler 33/1

 

 

 

NH Horses to Follow

imageThe new season is almost apon us and like most I can’t wait for it to begin, the flat maybe more valuable when it comes to prize money but it doesn’t come close to NH for excitement/enjoyment.

Last seasons NH horses to follow unbelievably hit over 1000 views and thankfully the list produced plenty of winners to ensure those views weren’t wasted. Highlights being:

  • Neptune Novices Hurdle winner Willoughby Court.
  • Grade 1 winner Death Duty.
  • Three time handicap winner Definitly Red.
  • Multiple Graded winner Sutton Place
  • Grade 2 winner Forge Meadow.

 

NH Horses to Follow

Any Second Now – 5yo

Sire: Oscar     Dam: Pretty Neat

Trainer: T M Walsh     Owner: John P McManus

Novice Chaser    Trip: 2m4f+

Form: 113U

This unexposed gelding has ran 4 times to date winning twice including Grade 2 Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle when beating the highly regarded at the time Crack Mome. Last year the trainer was adamant that the horse was still raw and had a lot of growing still to do. With that comment in mind for him to produce the level of form over timber that he did would suggest the son of Oscar has plenty of ability. If another summer in the field has done the trick then I expect him to line up over fences this coming season. The novice chase ranks looks a very competitive category this season so no doubt it’s a tough ask, but with the expected improvement I have no doubt this horse could run in the highest grade.

 

As You Were – 5yo

Sire: Azamour     Dam: Princess Skippie

Trainer: Emmet Mullins     Owner: F N Doyle

Novice Hurdler     Trip: 2m4f+

Form: 1

On debut this gelding made a deep impression when thumping the field by 16 lengths, beating a good yardstick in Judgement Day. He travelled well through out the race and kept finding in the straight when the jockey asked the question. He looks a strong stayer in the making with plenty of class about him. It’s always difficult for smaller yards in Ireland to compete with the dominance of Mullins and Elliot but in this son of Azamour I’m confident Emmet Mullins has a good horse to go to war with over timber. He looks a horse that relishes the soft underfoot conditions so I’m expecting him to flourish around the festive period.

 

Ballyward – 5yo

Sire: Flemensfirth     Dam: Ifyoucouldseemenow

Trainer: W P Mullins     Owner: Andrea & Graham Wylie

Novice Hurder     Trip: 3m

Form: 21

Going into last season this horse had a reputation of being one of the best bumper horses in the Mullins yards and he certainly proved that reputation right when producing a very impressive performance when beating Drumconnor Lad by 16 lengths at leopardstown. This gelding looks a proper stayer and won’t come into his own until stepped up to 3mile. Despite that trip looking perfect for him I fully expect him to start over 2m or 2m4f and later stepping up, most likely at the festival. This combination of owner and trainer have had plenty of chances at the Albert Bartlett but have yet to taste success (Although trainer did this year), however I think Ballyward could be their best chance they’ve had for awhile.

 

Benatar – 5yo

Sire: Beneficial     Dam: Carrigeen Lily

Trainer: Gary Moore     Owner: Ashley Head

Novice Chaser/Handicaps     Trip: 2m4f+

Current Rating: 142     Expected Rating: 153

Form: 1424

On debut this gelding looked a serious horse when winning a maiden hurdle by 10 lengths, however his next 2 outings were slightly disappointing when comftably beaten in a listed race by Keeper Hill and then firmly put in his place by Le Breuil. On his last outing of the season this 5yo gelding got back on track when running a very creditable race coming 4th in the Grade 1 Mersey Novices Hurdle behind Finians Oscar, that level of form is very strong. The son of Beneficial goes novice chasing this season and I’m expecting plenty of improvement from the switch to the larger obstacles. I think he will appreciate 3mile in time and the Ultima handicap chase could well be a perfect spring target for him.

 

Canardier – 5yo

Sire: Crillon     Dam: Idylle Du Marais

Trainer: Dermot A McLoughlin     Owner: Slattery B/Stock

Novice Hurdler    Trip: 2m

Form: 1

This gelding is well regarded by connections and was well backed on debut in a very competitive bumper at the punchestown festival where he showed a high cruising speed to beat all 17 rivals and land the gamble. What made the victory even more impressive was the 2nd Its all Guesswork was able to get the momentum behind him when coming to challenge but the winner whilst still travelling well was able to fend him off and go away at the finish. I feel this gelding could be a dark horse over 2mile in Ireland this season and due to connections and most likely will face off against the Mullins and Elliot battalion he is more than likely going to be a good price. If starting early enough the Royal Bond could well be a suitable early target to aim for.

 

Captain Chaos – 6yo

Sire: Golan     Dam: Times have Changed

Trainer: Dan Skelton     Owner: Mike & Eileen Newbould

Novice Chaser/Handicaps     Trip: 2m4f+

Current Rating: 137     Expected Rating: 150

Form: 243F

Last season didn’t really go to plan for this gelding where he was unable to score over fences in three goes. He was though highly tried having only ran in pattern company. He did however run a very good race on his penultimate start when finishing just under 7 lengths behind the Harry Fry trained American in Grade 2 company. A mark of 137 looks very lenient on that form, although if I was them I’d run in a couple of low key novice chases and then aim him for the Novice handicap chase on the Tuesday of the Cheltenham festival. Whatever handicap they aim for though as long as his jumping holds up he will be very hard to beat as I think he’s one of the best handicapped horses in training.

 

Claimantakinforgan – 5yo

Sire: Great Pretender     Dam: Taquine D’Estress

Trainer: Nicky Henderson     Owner: Grech Parkin

Novice Hurdler     Trip: 3m

Form: 6235

This PTP winner started his racing under rules in the best possible way when winning a bumper in cosy fashion at Haydock when beating Global Stage with the pair 12 lengths clear of third. His best performance was when he come third in the champion bumper being denied by the Gordon Elliot trained mare Fayonagh who subsequently won a further Grade 1 at the Punchestown Festival. The form that this gelding produced in bumpers only bodes well for his future as he doesn’t look the bumper type so he can only improve for the switch to jumping and especially when upped in trip. He’s definitely a stayer to keep on the right side of with the Albert Bartlett being the main target.

 

Cultivator – 6yo

Sire: Alflora     Dam: Angie Marinie

Trainer: Nicky Henderson     Owner: Kimmins F & F

Handicap Hurdler     Trip: 2m

Current Rating: 139     Expected Rating: 150

Form: 3618

For me this gelding is crying out for a strongly run big field handicap, the reason why I think this is he’s got such a high cruising speed in small events this attribute is just wasted. A mark of 139 looks workable and I expect/hope he contests all the top 2mile handicaps. His form from last season is abit hit and miss, although I feel the trip is the reason for that as I believe he’s a proper 2miler. If I was campaigning him I would aim for the listed William Hill handicap Hurdle at ascot early November, which Nicky Henderson won a few years ago with Sign of A Victory. I can easily see this horse reaching a rating of 150.

 

Death Duty – 6yo

Sire: Shantou     Dam: Midnight Gift

Trainer: Gordon Elliot     Owner: Gigginstown House Stud

Novice Chaser     Trip: 2m4f – 3m

Form: 11U3

If you follow me on Twitter I’m sure you’re not suprised to see this fella in my list once again as I go on about him enough to probably drive most insane. This is the season where we hopefully see him reach most of his potential with the switch to fences. Last season started brilliantly for this son of Shantou winning his first 4 races over hurdles with Grade 1 Lawlors Hotel Novice Hurdle being his biggest scalp in early January. He went into the Cheltenham festival being a lot of people’s banker of the week however it wasn’t to be as he looked in trouble when turning for home and then unseating his rider at the last when already beat. He came back to form when finishing a good third behind Bacardys and Finians Oscar in a Grade 1 at the Punchestown festival. The Grade 1 Drinmore novices chase looks the perfect early season target for him, which will hopefully be a stepping stone to bigger and better things for the season. I would however test the trip theory over 3mile again before Cheltenham, as I’m still sure it wasn’t the trip that got him beat last season. He’s a horse I can easily see going off fav for the RSA. Fingers crossed he does the business this year.

 

Finians Oscar – 5yo

Sire: Oscar     Dam: Trinity Alley

Trainer: Colin Tizzard     Owner: Ann & Alan Potts

Novice Chaser     Trip: 2m – 2m4f

Form: 1112

This son of Oscar is the novice chaser I’m most looking forward to. There is no doubt he should still be unbeaten so far, due to the jockey going too soon on him on his latest start at Punchestown where he was denied close home by the multiple Grade 1 winner Bacardys. This 5yo gelding has also won multiple Grade ones last season winning the Tolworth and Mersey Novices Hurdle. Fences will bring out the best in this horse and I really can’t wait for this to happen. The trip conundrum is a big question mark though, I think 2m4f is his optimum right now but I think he has the class to win an arkle. The 8/1 paddy power offer for him to win any race at the festival looks the perfect bet to solve all problems. Injury ruled him out of last seasons festival so hopefully connections will have better luck this time round.

 

Kerrow – 7yo

Sire: Mahler     Dam: Olives Hall

Trainer: Alan King     Owner: Trevor Hemmings

Handicap Chaser     Trip: 3m+

Current Rating: 135     Expected Rating: 148

Form: 6126

This Alan King trained gelding looks a proper stayer and the fact he’s only 7 proves there is plenty of improvement still to come. He showed solid form throughout last season with his last run being his best when finishing 6th in the National Hunt chase at the Cheltenham festival. If you take the form with him and Beware the Bear who finished 2 lengths further back literally then that would suggest Kerrow is well handicapped as he would get 11lbs if they met in a handicap despite finishing ahead of him. He looks to appreciate good ground so an early start to the season could be possible. I’d be targeting the Grade 3 Betvictor Handicap Chase at the showcase meeting over an extended 3m3f, where I think he would have a massive chance off his mark of 135. He could well be a Grand National horse in the spring however he will need to probably win two races before then to have any chance of getting into the race. He’s definitely a handicapper to follow.

 

Last Goodbye – 6yo

Sire: Millenary     Dam: Welsh Ana

Trainer: Miss Elizabeth Doyle     Owner: Last Goodbye Syn

Handicap Chaser     Trip: 3m+

Current Rating: 136     Expected Rating: 146

Form: 6157

If you watch the novice handicap chase on the opening day of the festival you’ll see that this 6yo was unlucky as he got badly hampered at a crucial time giving him to much to do to get to the winner. With this in mind he did well to finish 5th and get as close as he did. Punchestown was a similar story but this time he was just given too much to do and stayed on to finish a never nearer 7th. With only 5 starts over fences he’s still very much unexposed with plenty of time on his hands, he looks the type to improve when he steps up to 3mile with the way he finishes off his races. With the trip in mind I would have an early season target of the Grade B Troytown handicap chase at Navan and then if all goes well the big paddy power chase over the festive period.

 

Minella Awards – 6yo

Sire: Oscar     Dam: Montys Miss

Trainer: Harry Fry     Dam: Masterson Holdlings ltd

Novice Chaser     Trip: 3m+

Form: 5211

This son of Oscar showed a very good level of form in the backend of last season winning two very competitive handicaps at sandown and Punchestown. His latest was the most impressive of the two when being stepped up to 3mile for the first time. That day he beat a good yardstick in No Comment by a length, with the two clear of the rest. He looks a proper stayer but with a hint of class which should help him to be competitive at the top level over fences. I could easily see this horse line up in either of the RSA or NH chase come March. He’s a stayer worth following as I think he will win plenty of races. The Fletham would look the perfect target for the first half of the season and depending on how that goes would map out the rest of his season.

 

Minellafordollars – 5yo

Sire: Kings Theatre     Dam: Another Dollar

Trainer: Gordon Elliot     Owner: Dr Bernardine Rochford

Novice Hurdler     Trip: 2m4f

Form: 11

This unbeaten gelding showed a very impressive display on his under rules debut when dispatching a field of 11 with the minimum of fuss winning by over 8 lengths. Racing post gave the son of Kings Theatre a RPR of 127 straight after that performance and after only one run that is a very high mark. He looks like a very exciting gelding for Elliot to go to war with over hurdles this season and I’m sure he’s looking forward to getting started. I would say 2m4f looks the trip for him right now with further looking more like his future. An end of season target could either be the Martin Pipe or Neptune.

 

Minotaur – 5yo

Sire: Azamour     Dam: Mycenae

Trainer: Jonjo O’Neil     Owner: John Paul McManus

Novice Chaser/Handicaps     Trip: 2m4f-3m

Current Rating: 135     Expected Rating: 145+

Form: 7311

At the start of last season this horse came in with a big reputation, mainly because of the high figure JP parted with to ensure the horse was running in his colours. It’s safe to say the 5yo gelding took his time to get the hang of things over timber with his latest 2 performance being very good where he hardly broke a sweat when thumping the fields by wide margins. He was given a mark of 135 after this two races, which I think is very fair. With the mark in mind I’m sure Jonjo has a plot for him. If he was mine I would start off in the fixed brush at Haydock in November to exploit the mark and it would be a great introduction into novice chasing. He’s definitely well handicapped in my eyes and wouldn’t surprise me if he finished the season on a mark of 145+.

 

Mortal – 5yo

Sire: Kings Theatre     Dam: Pomme Tiepy

Trainer: Joseph O’Brien      Owner: Gigginstown House Stud

Novice Hurdler      Trip: 2m4f+

Form: 1

Gigginstown look to have another exciting prospect on their hands as Mortal looked every bit of a good horse when winning on debut in comftable fashion. The form of the race looks nothing special but it’s the way he won it beating rivals with experience that impressed me the most. He looks a horse for the future, with still plenty of growing to do, with this in mind I feel a light campaign is probably on the cards. Wouldn’t surprise me if he didn’t make the trip to Cheltenham and stayed in Ireland with either fairyhouse or Punchestown in the spring his main targets.

 

Mr One More – 5yo

Sire: Asian Heights      Dam: Norah’s Quay

Trainer: Harry Fry     Owner: Richard A Fry

Novice Hurdler     Trip: 2m – 2m4f

Form: 1

Harry fry has gone from strength to strength in each year he has been training, unearthing gems and I think he may have found another one here. Mr One More made a pleasing debut by making all in a bumper at Bangor-on-dee, with the form of the bumper turning out very strong with numerous of winners coming out from it, most notably Le Breuil. He’s a very exciting gelding for Harry fry to train and I’m sure he’s looking forward to him jumping over hurdles.

 

Paloma Blue – 5yo

Sire: Stowaway      Dam: Court Leader

Trainer: Henry De Bromhead     Owner: C Jones

Novice Hurdler     Trip: 2m4f+

Form: 12

Son of Stowaway made the perfect start to his racing life when getting the better over Oakley Hall on debut. Form of his debut looks decent with the 2nd winning since and 4th running a good race at Punchestown. He would next take his place in grade 1 company at the Punchestown festival where he would only find the fantastic mare Fayonagh too good for him. The winner was running her 5th race so for Paloma Blue to run so well on only his second start says a lot of his ability. He’s definitely one that looks likely to improve for jumping with scope in abundance.

 

Potters Legend – 7yo

Sire: Midnight Legend     Dam: Loose Morals

Trainer: Lucy Wadham     Owner: Mrs J May

Handicap Chaser     Trip: 3m+

Current Rating: 139     Expected Rating: 147

Form: 4244

I’m sure Lucy is hoping her luck will turn soon with this horse because he’s been knocking on the door in top handicaps but just finding a few too good. His best effort would be when finishing a staying on 4th in the Kim Muir when only losing by just over 2 lengths. He’s no doubt well handicapped off 139 but he needs everything to fall right for him on the day. He’s a Stayer so only being 7 would suggest there is still more to come from him. When looking at the racing calendar the one race that screams out to me would be the Becher chase, which looks the perfect race for him and would be a good Grand National trial.

 

Pym – 4yo

Sire: Stowaway      Dam: Liss Rua

Trainer: Nicky Henderson      Owner: Mrs Patricia Pugh

Novice Hurdler     Trip: 2m4f

Form: 1

There is perhaps more of an expectation now when you see these certain colours being worn by an unraced horse due to the success of Altior, with that being the case Pym definitely didn’t disappoint for Nicky who had won the same bumper with the likes of William Henry and Sprinter Sacre. Nicky obviously likes aiming a good one at this bumper and I’m pretty sure he’s unearthed another potential star. He’s got plenty of stamina in his pedigree so I think the Neptune could be the big target for this horse if everything goes to plan. He’s definitely an exciting prospect and he’s trained by the right man to get the best out of him.

 

Red Jack – 4yo

Sire: Mahler     Dam: Hollygrove Bonnie

Trainer: Noel Meade     Owner: John P McManus

Novice Hurdler     Trip: 2m – 2m4f

Form: 11

Similar to Death Duty if you follow me on Twitter you will know how much I love this horse and how good I think he is. For me he’s the most exciting horse going novice hurdling and I can’t wait for it. His form is rock solid having beaten Debuchet by almost 3 lengths on debut who subsequently finished 2nd in the champion bumper and also won a listed race. Furthermore the form doesn’t stop there as third place Le Richebourg has come out and won three races since also. After debut JP waited little time to secure the horse, which I imagine was for a substantial fee. In the famous colours he went an won the big sales bumper at Fairyhouse where he traveled like a dream throughout and showed a quick turn of foot to put 5 lengths between him and the rest, it was only hands and heels to the line with the whip not being used. He’s 14/1 with WilliamHill to win any race at the festival and I think that is brilliant value and well worth a bet.

 

Reigning Supreme – 6yo

Sire: Presenting     Dam: Gli Gli

Trainer: Nicky Henderson     Owner: Michael Buckley

Novice Chaser     Trip: 2m4f – 3m

Form 2141

Michael will be looking forward to seeing this lad over fences this season, as he’s an exciting prospect. Nicky always said this horse was still very raw and still had plenty of growing to do last season, which hopefully occurred over another summer at grass. If this is the case then he could be potentially a dark horse for all the top novice chases. Form of his debut looks strong with Any Drama coming out and winning 2 novice events. The light campaign would be classed as a good thing in my eyes as there is no point over running a horse when he still needs to grow. A race like the Grade 1 Scilly Isles would be a logical target for the horse this season.

 

Robin Roe – 6yo

Sire: Robin Des Champs     Dam: Talktothetail

Trainer: Dan Skelton      Owner: Mrs Barbara Hester

Novice Chaser     Trip: 2m4f

Form: 111F

Dan Skelton never hid his praise for this horse and you could see why from his debut where he looked a superstar when beating No Comment by 12 lengths and that horse has subsequently franked that form on numerous occasions. The high regard was shown again when throwing him into a Grade 1 after just a maiden hurdle success. However he took a fall and ended up injuring himself, whilst still travelling well ruling him out for the remainder of the season to the disappointment of trainer and connections. The one concern going straight novice chasing would be the lack of jumping experience so it wouldn’t surprise me if they went over hurdles to start with or even go for the fixed brush hurdle. He looks a top notcher and I fully expect him to be contesting Grade 1s.

 

Samcro – 5yo

Sire: Germany     Dam: Dun Dun

Trainer: Gordon Elliot     Owner: Gigginstown House Stud

Novice Hurdler     Trip: 2m4f

Form: 1111

This unbeaten son of Germany looks like another top notcher for Gordon Elliot to go to war with over hurdles this coming season. He has looked outstanding in 2 of his 3 races in bumpers, most notable his most recent race where he destroyed the field by 17 lengths easily. He’s a horse with a sky high potential and he could quite easily be Elliot’s best Novice for this season. For me he looks a Neptune horse all over, but the 14/1 on offer from Paddy Power to win any race at the festival looks too much of a tempting bet to miss. He’s got all the attributes to becomes an exceptional horse and if everything goes to plan I think he will go to the top.

 

William Henry – 7yo

Sire: Kings Theatre      Dam: Cincuenta

Trainer: Nicky Henderson      Owner: Walters Plant Hire ltd

Novice Chaser     Trip: 2m – 2m4f

Form: 2121

Despite being 7 this gelding has only ran a total of 7 times due to being restricted because of injury, missing out on a whole season. He was back in training last season and showed he hadn’t lost any of his ability when winning 2 out 4 and coming second to the progressive wholestone in a Grade 2 on trials day at Cheltenham in ground softer than he would have liked. He was still given a light hurdle campaign that season, perhaps saving him for novice chasing. I expect him to go over fences this season and he’s my dark horse for the Arkle with it being so wide open due to the lack of good quality 2mile Novice hurdlers from last season. The 33/1 on offer from bet365 looks a tempting bet. He’s got the scope for fences and it wouldn’t surprise me if he took a similar route to Altior.

 

Cheltenham Ante-Post

Red Jack to win any race 14/1

Samcro to win any race 14/1

Finians Oscar to win any race 8/1

William Henry – Arkle 33/1

Hennessy Gold Cup

The stamina sapping Grade 3 handicap is one of the highlights before the turn of the year and looking at the early declarations it shouldn’t disappoint again. Worth over £100,000 to the winner the race has attracted a high class field of 58 runners with a top rating of 172.

My slection for the big race is the Nicky Henderson trained Vyta Du Roc. Owned by Simon Munir & Isaac Souede this 2nd season chaser had a consistent first season over fences winning twice and finishing off with a respectable 5th in the very competitive Scotish National.

The 7 year old gelding started last season at Bangor over an inadequate trip of 2m1f, despite this he was able to overcome The Saint James in a pulsating finish to win by 1/2 length. He would then go on to find the very talented Bouvreuil too good again over a trip short of his preference.

Finally upped in trip to 3mile brought his best performance when winning the Grade 2 Renoldstown chase at Acsot, getting the better of the highly regarded Minella rocco, when clinging on to a diminishing lead. Next up was the festival where he would tackle the Grade 1 RSA where he finished a respectable 5th beat just over 10 lengths. Perhaps needing a bit more cut in the ground as he looked one paced turning in up the famous hill.

His final outing as stated earlier was the Scottish national where he went off the 8/1 joint favourite. He again finished 5th being beaten under 10 lengths off a mark of 145, again looking one paced on spring ground.

Dropped 2lbs for that run, which is a bonus in my eyes as I thought it was a very good run for saying it was his first time over that kind of trip. The 3m2f trip will be right up his street on a galloping track. The Hennessy is most commonly run on soft ground, which would be a big bonus if this again occurs although the weather needs to change soon for this to happen.

To put his mark into perspective he was beat about 10 lengths by the RSA winner Blaklion off levels and he would now be getting 11 lbs, but blacklion is 14s whereas my selection is 33/1. Nicky Henderson has said this is the target for the son of Lion Noir so I fully expect him to be fully tuned up for the race and Nicky is no stranger to winning the Hennesey having won it twice in the last 4 renewals with Triolo D’Alene & Bobs Worth. He’s a consistent jumper and looks open to plenty of improvement with another summer at grass under his belt. He’s entered up at the weekend over hurdles and fences, which I’d imagine will be his prep run. My preference would be over hurdle to save his mark.

Selection: Vyta Du Roc 1pt EW 33/1

BetVictor Gold Cup

The race is most commonly know as the Paddy Power Gold Cup, however this season the sponsorship has changed hands to Betvictor. The grade 3 race has attracted a total of 43 entries at the early declaration stage with a top rating of 160 showing the high class field it has attracted.

My selection for the race is the Paul Nicholls trained Bouvreuil. This son of Saddler Maker had a solid season in his first year over fences being placed at the Cheltenham festival and ending with a respectable 4th in the Grade 1 novice chase at Aintree.

There was no holding back with this horse as Paul threw him right in the deep end on his first career start over fences when tackling the Grade 1 at sandown last December. His inexperience showed with novicey jumps and was always in last position. It was easy to put a line through this run. He was to fair much better next time out when dropped considerably in class, albeit he faced a very good rival in Vyta Du Roc. He was able to show a better turn of foot than his rival this day and won by 1 1/2 lengths.

I feel the trainer got it wrong next time out by dropping him back 2 mile and this was shown as he was well beat into last position in the grade 2 race at Doncaster, albeit a very classy race. The festival was next for this 5 year old gelding, where he perhaps put his best display only being denied by 1/2 length by the talented Ballyalton. The novice handicap chase that he participated in normally works out well and I expect the same again. He ran respectable next time out in a Grade 1 company but he was just outclassed by very good opposition, finishing 4th.

This season I’m expecting plenty of improvement as he was only 4/5 in his first season over fences so with another summer at grass under his belt he is sure to have progressed. He has since changed owners with JP making the most of Potensis selling most of there stock and purchasing this talented individual. With a mark of 146 it already shows he’s produced a good level of form and I fully expect him to improve on this and I can see him getting to 155 come the end of the season.

Selection:- Bouvreuil 1pt EW 20/1

Jumpers To Follow

Allysson Monterg 6-y-o

Sire:- Network   Dam:- Mellyssa    Trainer:- Richard Hobson

This 6 year old gelding has a ran a total of 4 times over the smaller obstacles, winning once. His best effort to date would be whenhe just lost out to the very consistent Champers On Ice on New Year’s Day, going down by a Nk. His latest run was very creditable when coming 6th in the Albert Bartlett where he weakened after the last but not beaten by that far. He boasts plenty of scope for fences and I expect that will be the route connections go down. However if I was them I would exploit his mark of 138 and go for the fixed brush hurdle at Haydock in November, which will be a good introduction to chasing.

Capeland 4-y-o

Sire:- Poliglote    Dam:- Neiland    Trainer: Paul Nicholls

The son of Poliglote only ran once last season but provided a very good impression when landing the NHF listed event at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. He showed great battling qualities for his first run when fending off the strongly traveling jam session. That was over 1m6f and the way he finished that race you would expect further improvement when stepped up in trip to 2mile+. Trainer thinks a lot of him and I fully expect him to makes his presence felt over hurdles. Due to being so inexperienced it wouldn’t surprise me if Paul finds a couple of weak novice hurdles to gradually bring him a long before stepping up in class.

Coo Star Sivola 4-y-o

Sire:- Assessor    Dam:- Santorine    Trainer:- Nick Williams

Despite still being a maiden after 3 runs this gelding has shown solid consistent form with his latest run being the best when only being beat a length in the Fred winter at the Cheltenham festival. In his three runs he has proven he’s not ground dependent having ran on good and heavy ground, which is always a bonus. For his latest run he went up 2lbs in the ratings and now sits on a mark of 134. In my opinion that rating makes him chucked in and I fully expect him to capitalise with such a low mark. I expect him to be running in all the top 2mile handicaps, with the greatwood being a good starting point, having already proven course form.

Death Duty 5-y-o

Sire:- Shantou    Dam:- Midnight Gift    Trainer: Gordon Elliot

The son of Shantou boasts an RPR of 132 which shows just how much of an impression he has shown in his 4 bumpers. This 5 year old ran three times this season winning 2 and only finding the subsequent grade 1 winner Blow By Blow too good on his latest outing. However I don’t feel the race suited him as he had to make his own running and blow by blow just showed a better turn of foot in the straight. This gelding is one of my favourite horses in training and when stepped up in trip I fully expect him to be even better. He’s got all the credentials to be a top class 3miler. The only slight concern would be how he copes with quicker ground in the spring at the big festivals having only ran on soft or worse ground. However that won’t stop me taking the 33/1 for the Albert Bartlett. I imagine he will take a similar route to the likes of Don Cossack and No More Heroes.

Definitly Red 7-y-o

Sire:- Definite Article   Dam:- The Red Wench   Trainer:- Brian Ellison

The Brian Ellison trained gelding is definitely a handicapper worth following as his current mark of 142 could look very lenient when he gets his conditions. This second season chaser boasts plenty of top class form having not been disgraced by subsequent RSA & JLT winner Blaklion & Black Hercules in separate starts. To put his mark into perspective he was beat 2 3/4 lengths by Black Hercules but if they were to meet in a handicap there would be 16lbs difference in weights. I would say he’s definitely ground dependant if he’s going to be at his best. With that being the case I’m sure he will be aimed for a big handicap when the ground is most likely testing. The Hennessy would be my main aim as 3m2f on testing ground will be right up his street.

Forge Meadow 4-y-o

Sire:- Beneficial    Dam:- Ballys Baby    Trainer:- Mrs John Harrington

This 4 year old filly won a very competitive sales bumper in fairyhouse, which normally produces a few very good horses. She shows a great turn of foot and ran out a very comfortable winner, winning by over 5 lengths. She went off favourite next time out but only found the more battled hardened Augusta Kate too good for her. The fact she’s only 4 bodes well for her with plenty of improvement to come. The obvious main target would be the new mares novice hurdle race at Cheltenham in March. However it wouldn’t surprise me to see her in another bumper before she’s goes hurdling to give her more experience, with the listed mares bumper at Cheltenham in November a high possibility. If they decide to stick to bumpers for another season due to this filly only being 4 then she would have no problem running in such races like the Champion bumper.

Free Expression 7-y-o

Sire:- Germany    Dam:- Create A Storm    Trainer:- Gordon Elliot

This unexposed gelding has yet to taste success over fences in his three runs to date having bumped into Outlander and No More Heroes. However with improvement to come with experience his mark of 142 looks very workable having already achieved a very good standard of form. A race that could be targeted with this gelding would be the Paddy Power chase around Xmas time as connections seem to like that race. I definitely feel we’ve not seen the best of this horse yet and I’m fully convinced he can become a very good horse over 3mile.

Garo De Juilley 4-y-o

Sire:- Ungaro    Dam:- Lucy De Juilley    Trainer:- Paul Nicholls

This French import has won his last 4 runs to date on the flat and has since been purchased by champion trainer Paul Nicholls. The son of Ungaro has plenty of scope for the switch to this code and is highly regarded by connections. I’m sure the plan for this gelding will be to ease him in with a couple of low key events to ensure he gets plenty of experience in the jumping department. He has been winning over 12f on the flat so I wouldn’t be surprised if he turned out to be a Neptune horse if he turns out to be that sort of level, which is anybody’s guess at this stage but he’s showing the right signs.

Give Me A Copper 6-y-o

Sire:- Presenting    Dam:- Copper Supreme    Trainer:- Paul Nicholls

This sole PTP winner has only ran once under rules but produced a commanding performance running out an easy winner of a Cork bumper. Throughout the whole race he travelled like a very good horse and was able to clear right away from his rivals without breaking a sweat. This 6 year old gelding is very highly regarded and is fully expected to be near the top when tackling the smaller obstacles. The fact he’s already a point winner bodes well with the jumping department although I’m sure the trainer will take his time with him.

Invitation Only 5-y-o

Sire:- Flemensfirth    Dam:- Norabelle    Trainer:- W P Mullins

This son of Flemensfirth is without doubt the horse I’m most looking forward to in the up coming season. In his two runs under rules he has shown great qualities in winning both. The form of his wins are very solid also having beat Sunni May by further then subsequent grade one winner blow by blow and the highly regarded Death Duty. This 5 year old is rumoured to be the best bumper horse from last season in the Mullins yard and I thoroughly agree with this. I fully expect him to go right to the top of the hurdle division and I think the Neptune will be perfect for him as it will accommodate his speed but also the stamina he has on breeding, very similar to his stablemate Yorkhill. I would imagine he will run in a maiden hurdle over 2mile then once upped in class he simultaneously be upped in trip.

Jenkins 4-y-o

Sire:- Azamour    Dam:- Aladiyna    Trainer:- Nicky Henderson

This very exciting gelding couldn’t have looked any more impressive on debut, he traveled like an exceptional horse throughout the race and put the contest to bed in the matter of strides. He quickened away with minimal fuss from a competitive field. It was so impressive that it was a big shock to see him just get touched off next time out at the punchestown festival albeit in a good race. However despite that defeat he is one of the most exciting novice hurdlers this season. The trainer holds him in very high regard and I think he will be his best. There was plenty of discussion after his two races in which the end of season target would be next season and I’m in the opinion that the supreme would be the perfect race for him and I know Nicky always like to start well. I’d imagine races like the Tolworth will be on the agenda for this gelding.

Killultagh Vic 7-y-o

Sire:- Old Vic    Dam:- Killultagh Dawn    Trainer:- W P Mullins

The Son of Old Vic ran only twice last season due to injury but was unbeaten in both runs. His most notable run was his latest when he made a devastating error at the last fence handing the race to his rivals, although that’s what should of happened but despite losing his irons Ruby Walsh somehow managed to get Killultagh Vic back up to win on the run in. He was made a short price fav for the JLT after the race and I’m certain he would have gone very close but unfortunately injury scuppered his chance. I remember Mullins saying if they didn’t have Douvan then this fella would be going for the arkle so that alone shows how much speed he has. With that comment in mind I’m wary of what his target could be. Whatever they do I really hope they exploit the mark he has of 149 as he is sure to make that look a mockery. I would be aiming him for the bet victor gold cup in November and then up in class after that. I would imagine the Ryanair or the Gold cup will be his end of season target.

Melon 4-y-o

Sire:- Medicean    Dam:- Night Teeny    Trainer:- W P Mullins

Looking at this geldings bare form you would think he’s nothing special, but the same could have been said about this fellas stablemate Min last season, who subsequently finished 2nd in the supreme. I get the feeling this horse could be a similar type who is going to improve considerable with the switch to the Mullins yard. He has ran 4 times on the flat so far, winning only one but he’s got plenty of scope and the switch to hurdling could be just what he needs. He’s definitely one for chasing in time but that doesn’t mean he can’t go to the top over hurdles to start with. I’m sure he will start off in a maiden hurdle but from then onwards its anybody guess when it comes to planning Mullins horses.

Outspoken 4-y-o

Sire:- Galileo    Dam:- Riskaverse    Trainer:- Joseph Obrien

The very well bred 4 year old ran only once over timber last season where he finished 2nd 1 3/4 lengths behind Allblak Des Places. However without making a mistake at the last hurdle I believe that form would have been different as outspoken was getting the better of his rival until the mistake. Taking away the mistake it was a good introduction to jumping for this son of Galileo. He wasn’t seen again after this due to injury and Joseph immediately said they would save this horse till next season to save his novice status, which could end up being a very wise decision. Whatever this gelding does over the winter time he will only improve for the return of good spring ground. Having only ran 5 times over both codes there is still loads of improvement to come and I would be very surprised if this horse hasn’t won a graded event by the end of the season.
Sutton Place 5-y-o

Sire:- Mahler    Dam:- Glebe Beauty    Trainer:- Gordon Elliot

This 5 year old gelding was a big improver having been beat on debut in third behind the well regarded Anibale fly to then go unbeaten in his next three runs, winning a grade 2 in his latest outing. On his latest run he just got the better of Royal Cavier by 1/2 a length. Although the winning margin was small a mistake at the last was the reason as it halted the momentum allowing the Mullins trained horse to get this head in front before Sutton place rallied late on to get the win. The son of Mahler is definitely one I’m looking forward to seeing jumping a fence and I’m really hoping this is the route they go down. He looks to have plenty of scope and should go close to the top over fences. The way he finishes his races you would expect a step up in trip will bring out more improvement. An early season target for this horse could be the grade 1 Drinmore novice chase in November.

Vigil 7-y-o

Sire:- Dansili    Dam:- Magnolia Lane    Trainer:- D K Weld

This lightly raced gelding has only ran 8 times despite turning 8 at the turn of the year, which shows he’s perhaps a tough horse to train. Despite that he has plenty of class about him. The son of Dansili has come 5th in two champion bumpers and last season ran a creditable race coming 6th in the Neptune, which was won by Yorkhill. Despite that only being his third run over hurdles he was only beaten by 12 lengths. For a horse so inexperienced over the obstacles that was a good performance. With this in mind his mark of 139 looks very workable. With improvement likely with more experience this mark looks exploitable and I fully expect him to be contesting top handicaps with the Coral Cup/County Hurdle possibly being the main aim.

Willoughby Court 5-y-o

Sire:- Court Cave    Dam:- Willoughby Sue    Trainer:- Ben Pauling

This two time bumper winner has an RPR of 131 and to put that in perspective Barters Hill had a rating of 132 after his bumper season. Only beaten 5 1/2 lengths by Bacardys shows he’s well up to tackling the top level. He is a big backward type, which is why it’s even more impressive to see what he has done already, so I expect big improvement from him now he’s had another summer at grass. This is an exact quote from the trainer himself: ‘I expect people will start taking notice of him quite quickly’. The trainer has said there is a possibility that he will start off in the same race Barters Hill did at Huntingdon. I could also see him taking that exact route Barters took throughout the season although the Neptune would perhaps be more appropriate or the Martin Pipe if he doesn’t make the class of grade 1.

Willows Saviour 9-y-o

Sire:- Septieme Ciel    Dam:- Willow Gate    Trainer:- Dan Skelton

This 9 year old gelding has won 5 of his last 7 starts and was running a massive race when coming down late on in his latest run at the Cheltenham festival. With only 4 chase starts to date there is sure to be more improvement to come with more experience, which makes his mark of 138 look very workable. I’d imagine the minute the horse fell in his latest run they would have planned to keep him for the Betvictor Gold cup for an early season target, well that would have been my thoughts anyway. There is definitely a big handicap chase in him and as long as his jumping holds up he will deliver.

Without Limites 4-y-o

Sire:- Martaline    Dam:- Sans Limites    Trainer:- Miss Elizabeth Doyle

Another two time winning bumper has also recorded a high RPR with it standing at 128. His latest outing producing such a mark as he thumped 3 other rivals in a listed event by a wide margin. This gelding has only tasted defeat once, which was on debut where he found the well regarded Aspen Colarado too good. Since that defeat he has without doubt improved considerably and I fully believe if the two met again the outcome would be different. This horse is definitely in the category of ‘could be anything’.

Wotzizname 6-y-o

Sire:- Fruits of Love    Dam:- Native Beau    Trainer:- Harry Fry

Despite having only ran twice this gelding is one of the horses I’m most looking forward to jumping a fence. He has been deadly on his two outings winning by 15 & 13 lengths without coming out of gear 1. The fact the trainer has been very quiet with this horse would be a bonus as he looks a chaser all day and there’s no point running too many times over hurdles. He looks tailor made for staying races and when I think of this horse I instantly think of the 4 miler at Cheltenham and he’s currently 50/1 for that race, which makes it a very tempting bet. He has plenty of scope and I’m sure Harry Fry has been schooling him plenty over fences so jumping ought to be no problem for this exciting gelding. I’d imagine he will stick to 3 mile races and then hopefully step up in trip at the festival.

Antepost:-

Jenkins 25/1 Supreme Novices Hurdle

Invitation Only 16/1 Neptune Novices Hurdle

Death Duty 33/1 Albert Bartlett

Wotzizname 50/1 National Hunt Chase

Killultagh Vic 20/1 Ryanair

The Flat is Back

My 10 3 year olds to follow for the upcoming flat season, 5 colts & 5 fillies.

Midterm

Sire:- Galileo     Dam:- Midday

This son of Galileo made a successful introduction to racing on his sole start as a 2 year old when beating 16 rivals in a competitive Newbury maiden. Despite showing greenness throughout the race, he was able to rally late on once switched to the rail to win cosily by a length. The form of the maiden is looking strong with 3 winners coming from the 6 that have ran since. I feel this is the most exciting 3 year old in training and I think he will go right to the top. The derby looks the main aim and at 12/1 I still think there’s plenty of value to be had.

US Army Ranger

Sire:- Galileo     Dam:- Moonstone

This 3 year old colt is yet to see a racecourse, which could cause a slight concern having missed all his 2 year old campaign, however vibes coming from the yard suggest he’s been working well. Being a half brother to winners such as Words & Stubss it shows that the dam has produced quality offspring. I would imagine Derby trials over in Ireland would be on the agenda and then either a crack at the Derby or the Irish equivalent. I think he could be Coolmores main hope for the Derby and 20/1 looks a big price, however probably want to see him run before backing.

Moonlight Magic

Sire:- Cape Cross     Dam:- Melikah

This highly regarded colt is yet to taste defeat in his 2 starts, with his latest coming in listed company. Form doesn’t look anything special, however I feel this colt will only get better and better as the season goes on, with the step up in trip bringing out the improvement. Cape cross has only just been retired from his studs duties so it would be great if he could bow out with another Derby winner. From what has been said it seems the Irish trials are favoured with the main target either being the Derby or the Irish equivalent.

Mootaharer

Sire:- Dubawi     Dam:- Tahrir

Having been beaten over 6f on his first start he was then stepped up to 7f at Newmarket where he relished the extra yardage when staying on strongly to win easily on his second time of asking in a maiden. The form of his maiden win doesn’t look great and will need to improve to figure in the big races, however I feel with a further step up in trip we will see an even better horse. Being a half brother to the high class Muhaarar he won’t lack speed, so with stamina on one side and speed on the other I think 8f could be his optimum trip. With that in mind I believe the 2000 Guinease is well within his capabilities and at 25/1 it is a very tempting EW bet.

Kachy

Sire:- Kyllachy     Dam:- Dubai Bounty

This Unbeaten colt is a horse I really like, having only raced once before being upped in class into group 3 level against more experienced rivals for him to then run out a strong winner over 5f beating a good yardstick in King of Rooks was very impressive. I’m not sure what connections have in mind for the horse but if he was mine the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot would be my main aim. At 25/1 he looks a very tempting bet.

Best In The World

Sire:- Galileo     Dam:- Red Evie

Being a full sister to the high class Found there is no doubt there is pressure for this 3 year old filly to deliver and so far she has done. Beaten by Rayisa on debut she was then able to reverse that form next time out in listed level, when staying on strongly and fending off any rivals in the closing stages. I remember Aiden Obrien being asked about this horse in an interview with him stating that she will be a lovely filly when tackling middle distances. She has somewhat gone under the radar, which would be expected with having the pair Minding & Ballydoyle as stable mates, however in my opinion this filly could be better than those two once stepped up to 12f. She is still a very big price for the oaks at 25/1 and with improvement to come I think she will have a big chance.

Lumiere

Sire:- Shamardal     Dam:- Screen Star

Mark Johnston never hid his praise for this magnificent filly in stating she was possibly the best he’s had, withcomments like that being bashed about, everyone takes note. The Daughter of Shamardal ran three times as a 2 year old with wins coming either side of a 2nd. Her latest run was her best to date when fending of her rivals in gamely fashion in the group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket. When looking for a Guinease contender course form is always a big bonus, as not all horses can cope with the undulations of the track. She has shown top class form and with more improvement to come I fully expect her to be contesting all the top mile races against her own sex. Connections have stated they will be disappointed if she doesn’t win the race so they are very bullish about her chances.

Light Music

Sire:- Elusive Quality     Dam:- Medley

The William Haggas trained filly has shown a  good level of form to date having only beaten once by the very talented Nathra, who subsequently ran a cracking race in the fillies mile when only finding Minding to good. This 3 year old filly has already shown she’s up to black type level when winning a listed race on her latest outing when keeping on well to win in a tight finish denying Make fast. I wouldn’t be in any rush to back this filly for the 1000 Guinease but not because I don’t think she’s got the talent, but the fact I think she would prefer cut in the ground and there’s no guarantee to get that at Newmarket. She could be one for the French equivalent with ground likely to have more cut.

Kalisma

Sire:- Cape Cross     Dam:- Kalarouna

A winner of her sole start in a 14 runner maiden she travlled extremely well and showed a good attitude when jockey asked the question. This filly is another one I’m looking forward to when stepping up in trip with 10f looking her optimum trip. She’s perhaps a filly that would prefer cut in the ground and being owned by Aga Khan I could easily see her lining up in the French Oaks. This daughter of Cape Cross looks to have plenty of potential and I can see her winning stakes races throughout the season.

Shaldana 

Sire:- Danehill Dancer     Dam:- Shaleela

This filly is perhaps a gamble as she is unraced and so is the dam, however I’m basing this on the dams half sister as she was able to produce a group one winner over 10f. She has an entry for the Irish Oaks, which would provide enough info that she’s obviously showing something at home. She’s with the right trainer (Roger Charlton) in the fact he knows how to bring on a good horse that needs time, which having not seen this filly at all as a 2 year old would state that this is a horse that needs time.

Ante-Post bets: 

Derby – 1pt EW Midterm 12/1

Oaks – 1pt EW Best In The World 25/1

Commenwalth Cup – 1pt EW Kachy 25/1

1000 Guinease – 1pt EW Lumiere 5/1

2000 Guinease – 1pt EW Mootaharer 25/1

Sizing To Bounce Back

With just over 2 weeks to go till the start of the Cheltenham Festival, we now begin to analyse and disect the novice chases. The first of the novice chase races I will be discussing is The Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase.

The Arkle is ran on the opening day of the festival on the old course over 2 mile. The gallop that the race is ran at is normally ferocious, which lights up any jumping frailties of any runners, producing a true jumping test.

As a spectacle there is nothing quite like watching 2 mile chasers at the highest level. The likes of Sprinter Sacre, Masterminded & Moscow Flyer to name a few. When they ran it was exihilarating, the pace they went, the slick jumping, it was like poetry. 

Last years renewal was won by the exuberant Un De Sceaux, who is trained by the formidable Wille Mullins, who looks to hold a very strong hand in this years contest.

This brings me to the short priced favourite Douvan, who has been faultless this season in winning all three of his chase starts this season. His most impressive chase win to date was when he gave his old foe Sizing John a routing by 18 lengths in the Grade 1 Racing Post Novice Chase at leopardstown over the Christmas period. Already a supreme winner he looks highly likely to add this years Arkle to his Cheltenham riches. This 6 year old gelding currently heads the market at odds of 2/5, which tells a story in itself. The son of Walk In The Park has took the transition from timber to fences in his stride and looks bombproof to give Rich Ricci another big success.

He looks head and shoulders above the rest and as long as he stays sound and gets a clear round nothing will come close. Douvan is what you call the perfect equine steeplechaser, with plenty of size and scope and that crucial class needed to get to the very top, which he has in abundance. However as a betting purpose he is no use to us, on the other hand I don’t want to take him on either. Thankfully most bookies are offering a without Douvan market, which is where I will be doing my betting.

Next in the market is the Nicky Henderson trained Vaniteux. He holds an almost faultless record over the larger obstacles with only tasting defeat once in three starts behind the classy Ar Mad, who unfortunately won’t be taking his place in the 2 mile spectacle due to injury. On chasing debut at Kempton this son of Voix Du Nord showed a brilliant round of jumping from the front, being slick and accurate, which couldn’t be said about his rivals that day.

The 7 year old gelding was then upped in class next time out in the Grade 2 Wayward lads Novices chase where he was sent off the 10/11 fav. Two fences out he looked the winner taking the lead by a length, however the Grade 1 winner Ar Mad battled back having been headed and rallied after the last to get back up and win by a NK. Perhaps you can make an excuse for him that day as his jumping was not as slick as before, with a few novice mistakes creeping in, however that might have been because he didn’t have his own way upfront.

Connections must have been pleased to see this former classy hurdler bouncing back in an authority fashion at Doncaster next time out when beating a good field. He was worth more than the winning margin that day, as he idled late on allowing his rivals to close near the end.

Theres has been a lot of question marks on which race Sizing John will end up being aimed for with him holding an entry not only in the Arkle but also the JLT. However just recently trainer Henry De Bromhead has come out and said the Arkle is most likely.

The son of Midnight Legend has a record of 1,1,2 over fences, with the latter being where he was completely out classed by Douvan. However I don’t believe the true Sizing John turned up that day because of the manner he got beaten. No doubt he isn’t in the same league as Douvan but you would have hoped he would have put up more of a fight. This 6 year old gelding has adapted well to the switch to fences, with no question marks over his jumping. Before his most recent defeat he had won at margins of 7L & 8L in small field events, where he out jumped and outclassed his rivals. He has looked every bit of a natural over fences, showing accurate & bold jumping.

He showed a high level of form over the smaller obstacles, which may have come as suprise with him looking a chaser in the making. He procuded his best performance to date at the Cheltenham festival last year when finishing in 3rd, 7 lengths behind Douvan in the Supreme Novices Hurdle. I feel there is plenty more improvement to come with drier ground and a stronger gallop to aim at highly likely.

At the start of the season L’Ami Serge was a horse most people were looking forward to having been unlucky in his last outing in the Supreme. However we had to wait till the new year for his re-appearance due to a couple of setbacks along the way.

This son of Kings Theatre looked the most likely contender to serve it up to Douvan after dispatching fields at Plumpton and Wetherby without getting out of first gear over the larger obstacles. He looked a natural over fences in both starts and I’m sure connections were thinking they had real Arkle contender on there hands. However all those dreams looked to have been dashed on his latest start where he was comftably beaten 11L by Violet Dancer. Though excuses can be made as he didn’t seem his usual self, with sloppy jumping and finding very little when ridden to close on the leader. He now has plenty of questions to be asked of him and looks a very risky bet.

Garde La Victoire has something in common with Douvan and that would be he has an unblemished record over fences, however that’s where the similarities end. He’s not a flashy type like Douvan, but you know what you’re going to get from this son of Kapgarde and that’s 110%.

This now 7 year old has shown a good level of form over fences with perhaps his best piece of form being his 7L beating of the highly regarded Bristol De Mai. Even though looking every bit of a chaser hes not been fully convincing over fences, being novicey in all three of his runs. He has shown the same traits over fences as he had over timber in the fact he loves a battle, shown by his second run of the season at Cheltenham when out battling Fox Norton to win by 2 1/2 L in a Garde 2 event. He is a very consistent horse but I do feel at the top level he will always come up short against a classier rival.

From the rest of the field Arzal has been very consistent and perhaps surprised a few due to the lack of natural size and scope from this 6  year old. He has shown a good level of form to date but looks held by Vaniteux having been behind the Nicky Henderson trained gelding in his last 2 outings.

Aliser D’Irlande has improved massively since his switch to Henry De Bromhead yards and looks a gelding to be going places, however connections have stated that he looks to bypass Cheltenham for preference of Aintree, which looks to be a sensible option with perhaps Cheltenham a step far to soon at this time of his career.

Pricewise slection The Game Changer hasn’t ran since 15th October, which for me would be a concern as I think there will be others more race fit and any lack of fitness will be found out in a race of such calibre. He has won 6 out of 8 races over fences and even though that sounds quite impressive he was just beating the same rivals in very small fields. This Gordon Elliot trained gelding also sometimes had a tendency to not find an awful lot when being ridden last season but that may have been because he was still maturing and filling out his frame. He travels and jumps well, it’s just whether he has the class for such a race.

Selection

For me there is a standout bet in the betting without Douvan market and that would be Sizing John. If he bounces back and re-produces the level of form, which saw him finish third in the supreme behind Douvan then I expect him to finsh ahead of the rest.

Sizing John 4/1 (W/O Douvan)

 

 

 

 

 

Shantou’s time to shine

The Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle is a Grade 1 ran over a distance of 3 miles, which is ran on the last day of the festival. The race was introduced into the Cheltenham festival in 2005 when the showpiece was expanded to 4 days. This race is a perfect stepping stone for horses that are destined for a fence over a trip with RSA & Gold Cup winners coming from the race.

This years renewal has attracted a total of 73 horses at the latest declaration stage, with Willie Mullins dominating proceedings with a total of 20 runners entered for the stamina sapping race. However that is where the domination stops when it comes to Willie Mullins in this years renewal, with the shortest price runner in the market for the Irish based trainer being Up For Review at 14/1. This comes as a change for Willie Mullins as he trained the short priced favourite in the last two renewals (Black Hercules & Briar Hill).

Like the Supreme & Neptune there is one horse that dominates the betting, with the Ben Pauling trained Barters Hill at the head of the market. The 6 year old gelding is unbeaten under rules, with his last 3 wins coming over hurdles. His most impressive run over hurdles would have to be his Grade 1 win in the Challow Novices hurdle, where he won by 12 lengths to a subsequent winner in Politologue. This son of Kalanisi has shown an impressive attitude to date, showing grit and determination to battle off any horse that comes to challenge him. I have no doubt if he’s leading coming to the last he’s going to be one tough horse to pass, however I feel his jumping could be his major downfall, as he can very sloppy at times and just doesn’t look a natural hurdler. So with that in mind I want to take this 5/2 favourite on.

Second in the market is the Neil Mullholand trained Shantou Village. The son of Shantou made a great impression on his second run over timber when giving the highly regarded Champers on Ice a thumping by 15 lengths. This six year old lost his unbeaten record under rules last time out when he was no match for the impressive Yanworth. Although he was brushed aside that day I feel this slick jumper had excuses with condtions being the most testing he’s encounted. With the step up in trip likely to suit I can’t see this gelding outside the front 3, with the race lacking in depth of quality. I feel this strong traveler has all the right attributes for this type of race with stamina looking no issue with the way he’s finished his races over slightly shorter distances. With the likelihood of returning to a sounder surface also being a massive positive. At 7/1 this P2P winner is surely the bet of the race.

Up For Review who I mentioned earlier is next in the market and even though he is third in the betting I can’t see this horse winning. Not only for the fact he was put in his place by Barters Hill at Doncaster but also I feel he’s reliant on softer conditions. With better ground expected at the festival I feel this gelding will struggle.

Ballydine got within 3/4 of a length to Barters hill last time out but I feel that margin is very misleading. They could have ran another half a mile and but nothing in that race was going to pass Barters hill. I can’t see how the Charlie Longsdon trained gelding can turn the form, in fact I think the distance between the two come the festival will be much greater than 3/4l.

Mystical Knight & Open Eagle faced off in a novices hurdle at the weekend with the Willie Mullins trained runner getting the better of the lighty raced son of Kayf Tara. Open Eagle looks a nice type over hurdles however I don’t feel 3 mile is what this gelding needs and I wouldn’t be surprised if he turned up in the Neptune. With Mystical Knight I do feel the step up in trip would suit but I feel a race of this calibre would be a step too soon for this 7 year old, with Aintree the more likely target.

O O Seven, A Toi Phil & Long Dog are most likely to contest the Neptune from what trainers have said to date. Champers on Ice is a very consistent sort, having not been outside the front 3 over hurdles in 4 runs, winning 2 of them. However he seems to be held by Shantou Village and I can only see place chances at best for this son of Robin Des Champs.

Perhaps one of the biggest improvers in the race would be Unowwhatimeanharry. This 8 year old started the season on a rating of 118, 4 wins later he is on a current mark of 138, which will change due to his last win in a pertemps qualifier at the weekend. The son of Sir Harry Lewis has shown a good level of form to date and is a likeable sort with a good attitude. However I feel he needs to step up once again for just place claims and I don’t think he has the quality for a race of this standard. Although I do feel he has every right to take his place in the lineup.

A horse I feel is massively over priced is Balko Des Flos who is priced up at 40/1 with coral. This 5 year old gelding was bitterly dissappointing first time over timber when going off 6/4 favourite, yet only managing to finish 12th behind the classy Anibale Fly in a maiden hurdle. However that was over an inadequate trip, which was reinforced by his impressive run when stepped up to 2m4f next time out. The son of Balko beat a subsequent winner in Robin Thyme by 3 lengths at Punchestown with the pair 26 lengths clear of the rest. He showed a good level of jumping that day and showed he has stamina in abundance when staying on strongly after the last. Even though chasing is where we will see him at his best I do feel he can make his presence felt at the top level over hurdles. Sounder conditions and the fact I feel there’s even more improvement to come with another step up in trip at 40/1 he looks a no brainer of an each way bet.

Selections:

Shantou Village 7/1

Balko Des Flos 40/1

 

It’s all about the Hill

In this blog I’m going to be dissecting the Neptune Novices Hurlde, which is ran on the second day of the Cheltenham Festival. Past winners of the Neptune show what a rich history this race holds with the likes of The New One, Faugheen, First Lieuntenant and many more top horses coming out on top.

When first glancing at the Neptune and seeing the mammoth total of 78 runners entered for the prestige race it can be slightly daunting thinking that’s a lot to get through, however that figure is very misleading with more than half of the field have either no chance or won’t turn up. With that in mind it makes things a lot easier and less time consuming.

There’s no better place to start than the clear favourite Yanworth. This son of Norse Dancer was absolutely scintillating last time out where he dispatched a high class field without even breaking sweat. He not only made a good impression on the racing public but also Phil Smith, who allotted him a mark of 158. To put that mark into perspective Faugheen was only rated 155 after winning the Neptune. The sky really is the limit with this 6 year old gelding, with people already suggesting he could be the one to finally give Faugheen a race. However when it comes to the betting perspective I would find it very hard to suggest backing an even money shot ante post, so with that in mind I’m going to reluctantly take on the favourite.

There’s no surprise that Wille Mullins has a host of entry’s at this stage of the declarations with all his novices having multiple entry’s at the festival. The big question from his attack would be which of the Wylie owned horses goes for the race. I’m going to take a punt in that I think Yorkhill is going to turn up and if he does I think Yanworth will need to be on his ‘A’ game to fend of this son of Presenting. Already a Grade 1 winner this season with winning the Tolworth hurdle back at the begging of January he offers plenty of form to go on and the fact that race has had a form boost with second and last coming out and winning he looks a solid bet at 8/1. I believe the 2m5f trip looks tailor made for this gelding and the expectation of better ground can only improve his chances of causing an upset and beating the favourite. I feel there is still plenty of improvement to come as he still shown greenness in his races. I remember a quote from Willie Mullins stating Yorkhill is still yet to fill out his frame completely, so when that does happen he could be some horse.

The chances of Long Dog & Bleu Et Rouge winning the race I believe hinder on the ground, if it was to turn up soft then they would have to come into the picture. However if the ground does dry up then I feel they will get done for toe and will struggle on the ground. With ground being such an issue I wouldn’t be able to back them ante post.

If Yanworth wasn’t in this race I think they would name it the Willie Mullins race because he has 5 of the top 6 in the market, which leads me to his next entry A Toi Phil. This son of Day Flight is talented but quirky, showing the latter of his attributes in his debut over hurdles in Ireland when running out, then however showing the former when thumping a good field with this likes of Woodland Opera in last time out at leopardstown. He’s a horse that’s on the up and where the improvements stop is still a question mark. The likelihood is this horse won’t be seen at his best till he jumps a fence. To me he also looks more of a staying type so I would also fear for his chances if the ground was to dry up and make it more of a speed test.

I would be very surprised if we were to see Shantou Village line up in the Neptune field come the Wednesday, as he was certainly put in his place by Yanworth. The chances of him turning the form with the favourite would be very slim in my eyes, which is why I think they will take the Albert Bartlett route instead.

With most of the remaining runners looking like they would just make up the numbers if they turned up or they are most likely to be declared elsewhere I feel there’s a chance that should be taken on the Gordon Elliot trained Tycoon Prince. There is no secret in how highly Gordon rates this son of Trans Island with the comparison to Don Cossack being brought up plenty of times when the trainer has spoken about him. I remember last year when rumours were going round that Tycoon Prince was working all over the likes of No More Heroes at home. However the form that he has achieved to date over timber is well below par, so improvement is needed for him to get in the frame let alone win the race, but the way Gordon speaks about him would make you think we still haven’t seen the real Tycoon Prince. Whether that won’t be seen till he goes chasing is questionable but at 33/1 I feel he’s worth the risk at the prices. With the likelihood of dryer conditions and a strongly run race I can only see a big run from this gelding.

Selections:

Yorkhill 8/1

Tycoon Prince 33/1