With just over 2 weeks to go till the start of the Cheltenham Festival, we now begin to analyse and disect the novice chases. The first of the novice chase races I will be discussing is The Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase.

The Arkle is ran on the opening day of the festival on the old course over 2 mile. The gallop that the race is ran at is normally ferocious, which lights up any jumping frailties of any runners, producing a true jumping test.

As a spectacle there is nothing quite like watching 2 mile chasers at the highest level. The likes of Sprinter Sacre, Masterminded & Moscow Flyer to name a few. When they ran it was exihilarating, the pace they went, the slick jumping, it was like poetry. 

Last years renewal was won by the exuberant Un De Sceaux, who is trained by the formidable Wille Mullins, who looks to hold a very strong hand in this years contest.

This brings me to the short priced favourite Douvan, who has been faultless this season in winning all three of his chase starts this season. His most impressive chase win to date was when he gave his old foe Sizing John a routing by 18 lengths in the Grade 1 Racing Post Novice Chase at leopardstown over the Christmas period. Already a supreme winner he looks highly likely to add this years Arkle to his Cheltenham riches. This 6 year old gelding currently heads the market at odds of 2/5, which tells a story in itself. The son of Walk In The Park has took the transition from timber to fences in his stride and looks bombproof to give Rich Ricci another big success.

He looks head and shoulders above the rest and as long as he stays sound and gets a clear round nothing will come close. Douvan is what you call the perfect equine steeplechaser, with plenty of size and scope and that crucial class needed to get to the very top, which he has in abundance. However as a betting purpose he is no use to us, on the other hand I don’t want to take him on either. Thankfully most bookies are offering a without Douvan market, which is where I will be doing my betting.

Next in the market is the Nicky Henderson trained Vaniteux. He holds an almost faultless record over the larger obstacles with only tasting defeat once in three starts behind the classy Ar Mad, who unfortunately won’t be taking his place in the 2 mile spectacle due to injury. On chasing debut at Kempton this son of Voix Du Nord showed a brilliant round of jumping from the front, being slick and accurate, which couldn’t be said about his rivals that day.

The 7 year old gelding was then upped in class next time out in the Grade 2 Wayward lads Novices chase where he was sent off the 10/11 fav. Two fences out he looked the winner taking the lead by a length, however the Grade 1 winner Ar Mad battled back having been headed and rallied after the last to get back up and win by a NK. Perhaps you can make an excuse for him that day as his jumping was not as slick as before, with a few novice mistakes creeping in, however that might have been because he didn’t have his own way upfront.

Connections must have been pleased to see this former classy hurdler bouncing back in an authority fashion at Doncaster next time out when beating a good field. He was worth more than the winning margin that day, as he idled late on allowing his rivals to close near the end.

Theres has been a lot of question marks on which race Sizing John will end up being aimed for with him holding an entry not only in the Arkle but also the JLT. However just recently trainer Henry De Bromhead has come out and said the Arkle is most likely.

The son of Midnight Legend has a record of 1,1,2 over fences, with the latter being where he was completely out classed by Douvan. However I don’t believe the true Sizing John turned up that day because of the manner he got beaten. No doubt he isn’t in the same league as Douvan but you would have hoped he would have put up more of a fight. This 6 year old gelding has adapted well to the switch to fences, with no question marks over his jumping. Before his most recent defeat he had won at margins of 7L & 8L in small field events, where he out jumped and outclassed his rivals. He has looked every bit of a natural over fences, showing accurate & bold jumping.

He showed a high level of form over the smaller obstacles, which may have come as suprise with him looking a chaser in the making. He procuded his best performance to date at the Cheltenham festival last year when finishing in 3rd, 7 lengths behind Douvan in the Supreme Novices Hurdle. I feel there is plenty more improvement to come with drier ground and a stronger gallop to aim at highly likely.

At the start of the season L’Ami Serge was a horse most people were looking forward to having been unlucky in his last outing in the Supreme. However we had to wait till the new year for his re-appearance due to a couple of setbacks along the way.

This son of Kings Theatre looked the most likely contender to serve it up to Douvan after dispatching fields at Plumpton and Wetherby without getting out of first gear over the larger obstacles. He looked a natural over fences in both starts and I’m sure connections were thinking they had real Arkle contender on there hands. However all those dreams looked to have been dashed on his latest start where he was comftably beaten 11L by Violet Dancer. Though excuses can be made as he didn’t seem his usual self, with sloppy jumping and finding very little when ridden to close on the leader. He now has plenty of questions to be asked of him and looks a very risky bet.

Garde La Victoire has something in common with Douvan and that would be he has an unblemished record over fences, however that’s where the similarities end. He’s not a flashy type like Douvan, but you know what you’re going to get from this son of Kapgarde and that’s 110%.

This now 7 year old has shown a good level of form over fences with perhaps his best piece of form being his 7L beating of the highly regarded Bristol De Mai. Even though looking every bit of a chaser hes not been fully convincing over fences, being novicey in all three of his runs. He has shown the same traits over fences as he had over timber in the fact he loves a battle, shown by his second run of the season at Cheltenham when out battling Fox Norton to win by 2 1/2 L in a Garde 2 event. He is a very consistent horse but I do feel at the top level he will always come up short against a classier rival.

From the rest of the field Arzal has been very consistent and perhaps surprised a few due to the lack of natural size and scope from this 6  year old. He has shown a good level of form to date but looks held by Vaniteux having been behind the Nicky Henderson trained gelding in his last 2 outings.

Aliser D’Irlande has improved massively since his switch to Henry De Bromhead yards and looks a gelding to be going places, however connections have stated that he looks to bypass Cheltenham for preference of Aintree, which looks to be a sensible option with perhaps Cheltenham a step far to soon at this time of his career.

Pricewise slection The Game Changer hasn’t ran since 15th October, which for me would be a concern as I think there will be others more race fit and any lack of fitness will be found out in a race of such calibre. He has won 6 out of 8 races over fences and even though that sounds quite impressive he was just beating the same rivals in very small fields. This Gordon Elliot trained gelding also sometimes had a tendency to not find an awful lot when being ridden last season but that may have been because he was still maturing and filling out his frame. He travels and jumps well, it’s just whether he has the class for such a race.

Selection

For me there is a standout bet in the betting without Douvan market and that would be Sizing John. If he bounces back and re-produces the level of form, which saw him finish third in the supreme behind Douvan then I expect him to finsh ahead of the rest.

Sizing John 4/1 (W/O Douvan)

 

 

 

 

 

The Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle is a Grade 1 ran over a distance of 3 miles, which is ran on the last day of the festival. The race was introduced into the Cheltenham festival in 2005 when the showpiece was expanded to 4 days. This race is a perfect stepping stone for horses that are destined for a fence over a trip with RSA & Gold Cup winners coming from the race.

This years renewal has attracted a total of 73 horses at the latest declaration stage, with Willie Mullins dominating proceedings with a total of 20 runners entered for the stamina sapping race. However that is where the domination stops when it comes to Willie Mullins in this years renewal, with the shortest price runner in the market for the Irish based trainer being Up For Review at 14/1. This comes as a change for Willie Mullins as he trained the short priced favourite in the last two renewals (Black Hercules & Briar Hill).

Like the Supreme & Neptune there is one horse that dominates the betting, with the Ben Pauling trained Barters Hill at the head of the market. The 6 year old gelding is unbeaten under rules, with his last 3 wins coming over hurdles. His most impressive run over hurdles would have to be his Grade 1 win in the Challow Novices hurdle, where he won by 12 lengths to a subsequent winner in Politologue. This son of Kalanisi has shown an impressive attitude to date, showing grit and determination to battle off any horse that comes to challenge him. I have no doubt if he’s leading coming to the last he’s going to be one tough horse to pass, however I feel his jumping could be his major downfall, as he can very sloppy at times and just doesn’t look a natural hurdler. So with that in mind I want to take this 5/2 favourite on.

Second in the market is the Neil Mullholand trained Shantou Village. The son of Shantou made a great impression on his second run over timber when giving the highly regarded Champers on Ice a thumping by 15 lengths. This six year old lost his unbeaten record under rules last time out when he was no match for the impressive Yanworth. Although he was brushed aside that day I feel this slick jumper had excuses with condtions being the most testing he’s encounted. With the step up in trip likely to suit I can’t see this gelding outside the front 3, with the race lacking in depth of quality. I feel this strong traveler has all the right attributes for this type of race with stamina looking no issue with the way he’s finished his races over slightly shorter distances. With the likelihood of returning to a sounder surface also being a massive positive. At 7/1 this P2P winner is surely the bet of the race.

Up For Review who I mentioned earlier is next in the market and even though he is third in the betting I can’t see this horse winning. Not only for the fact he was put in his place by Barters Hill at Doncaster but also I feel he’s reliant on softer conditions. With better ground expected at the festival I feel this gelding will struggle.

Ballydine got within 3/4 of a length to Barters hill last time out but I feel that margin is very misleading. They could have ran another half a mile and but nothing in that race was going to pass Barters hill. I can’t see how the Charlie Longsdon trained gelding can turn the form, in fact I think the distance between the two come the festival will be much greater than 3/4l.

Mystical Knight & Open Eagle faced off in a novices hurdle at the weekend with the Willie Mullins trained runner getting the better of the lighty raced son of Kayf Tara. Open Eagle looks a nice type over hurdles however I don’t feel 3 mile is what this gelding needs and I wouldn’t be surprised if he turned up in the Neptune. With Mystical Knight I do feel the step up in trip would suit but I feel a race of this calibre would be a step too soon for this 7 year old, with Aintree the more likely target.

O O Seven, A Toi Phil & Long Dog are most likely to contest the Neptune from what trainers have said to date. Champers on Ice is a very consistent sort, having not been outside the front 3 over hurdles in 4 runs, winning 2 of them. However he seems to be held by Shantou Village and I can only see place chances at best for this son of Robin Des Champs.

Perhaps one of the biggest improvers in the race would be Unowwhatimeanharry. This 8 year old started the season on a rating of 118, 4 wins later he is on a current mark of 138, which will change due to his last win in a pertemps qualifier at the weekend. The son of Sir Harry Lewis has shown a good level of form to date and is a likeable sort with a good attitude. However I feel he needs to step up once again for just place claims and I don’t think he has the quality for a race of this standard. Although I do feel he has every right to take his place in the lineup.

A horse I feel is massively over priced is Balko Des Flos who is priced up at 40/1 with coral. This 5 year old gelding was bitterly dissappointing first time over timber when going off 6/4 favourite, yet only managing to finish 12th behind the classy Anibale Fly in a maiden hurdle. However that was over an inadequate trip, which was reinforced by his impressive run when stepped up to 2m4f next time out. The son of Balko beat a subsequent winner in Robin Thyme by 3 lengths at Punchestown with the pair 26 lengths clear of the rest. He showed a good level of jumping that day and showed he has stamina in abundance when staying on strongly after the last. Even though chasing is where we will see him at his best I do feel he can make his presence felt at the top level over hurdles. Sounder conditions and the fact I feel there’s even more improvement to come with another step up in trip at 40/1 he looks a no brainer of an each way bet.

Selections:

Shantou Village 7/1

Balko Des Flos 40/1

 

In this blog I’m going to be dissecting the Neptune Novices Hurlde, which is ran on the second day of the Cheltenham Festival. Past winners of the Neptune show what a rich history this race holds with the likes of The New One, Faugheen, First Lieuntenant and many more top horses coming out on top.

When first glancing at the Neptune and seeing the mammoth total of 78 runners entered for the prestige race it can be slightly daunting thinking that’s a lot to get through, however that figure is very misleading with more than half of the field have either no chance or won’t turn up. With that in mind it makes things a lot easier and less time consuming.

There’s no better place to start than the clear favourite Yanworth. This son of Norse Dancer was absolutely scintillating last time out where he dispatched a high class field without even breaking sweat. He not only made a good impression on the racing public but also Phil Smith, who allotted him a mark of 158. To put that mark into perspective Faugheen was only rated 155 after winning the Neptune. The sky really is the limit with this 6 year old gelding, with people already suggesting he could be the one to finally give Faugheen a race. However when it comes to the betting perspective I would find it very hard to suggest backing an even money shot ante post, so with that in mind I’m going to reluctantly take on the favourite.

There’s no surprise that Wille Mullins has a host of entry’s at this stage of the declarations with all his novices having multiple entry’s at the festival. The big question from his attack would be which of the Wylie owned horses goes for the race. I’m going to take a punt in that I think Yorkhill is going to turn up and if he does I think Yanworth will need to be on his ‘A’ game to fend of this son of Presenting. Already a Grade 1 winner this season with winning the Tolworth hurdle back at the begging of January he offers plenty of form to go on and the fact that race has had a form boost with second and last coming out and winning he looks a solid bet at 8/1. I believe the 2m5f trip looks tailor made for this gelding and the expectation of better ground can only improve his chances of causing an upset and beating the favourite. I feel there is still plenty of improvement to come as he still shown greenness in his races. I remember a quote from Willie Mullins stating Yorkhill is still yet to fill out his frame completely, so when that does happen he could be some horse.

The chances of Long Dog & Bleu Et Rouge winning the race I believe hinder on the ground, if it was to turn up soft then they would have to come into the picture. However if the ground does dry up then I feel they will get done for toe and will struggle on the ground. With ground being such an issue I wouldn’t be able to back them ante post.

If Yanworth wasn’t in this race I think they would name it the Willie Mullins race because he has 5 of the top 6 in the market, which leads me to his next entry A Toi Phil. This son of Day Flight is talented but quirky, showing the latter of his attributes in his debut over hurdles in Ireland when running out, then however showing the former when thumping a good field with this likes of Woodland Opera in last time out at leopardstown. He’s a horse that’s on the up and where the improvements stop is still a question mark. The likelihood is this horse won’t be seen at his best till he jumps a fence. To me he also looks more of a staying type so I would also fear for his chances if the ground was to dry up and make it more of a speed test.

I would be very surprised if we were to see Shantou Village line up in the Neptune field come the Wednesday, as he was certainly put in his place by Yanworth. The chances of him turning the form with the favourite would be very slim in my eyes, which is why I think they will take the Albert Bartlett route instead.

With most of the remaining runners looking like they would just make up the numbers if they turned up or they are most likely to be declared elsewhere I feel there’s a chance that should be taken on the Gordon Elliot trained Tycoon Prince. There is no secret in how highly Gordon rates this son of Trans Island with the comparison to Don Cossack being brought up plenty of times when the trainer has spoken about him. I remember last year when rumours were going round that Tycoon Prince was working all over the likes of No More Heroes at home. However the form that he has achieved to date over timber is well below par, so improvement is needed for him to get in the frame let alone win the race, but the way Gordon speaks about him would make you think we still haven’t seen the real Tycoon Prince. Whether that won’t be seen till he goes chasing is questionable but at 33/1 I feel he’s worth the risk at the prices. With the likelihood of dryer conditions and a strongly run race I can only see a big run from this gelding.

Selections:

Yorkhill 8/1

Tycoon Prince 33/1

With the Cheltenham festival less than 5 weeks away the anticipation of the first day is beginning to rise with bubbles being burst and reputations being increased. With the Cheltenham trials well underway this is the time of year where dreams come stuck or begin to become reality.

The Supreme Novices hurdle is the curtain raiser of the showpiece so there is no better place to start when it comes to Ante-post betting. In the last 3 seasons Willie Mullins has dominated this division with the likes of Vautour, Douvan & Champagne Fever. This season being no different with him training the Rich Ricci owned horse Min. There has been no secret about this son of Walk In the Park with him being the most talked about horse of the year. He hadn’t even jumped a hurdle in public and he was already 10/1 for the supreme. There is always normally one big hype horse in a season but this gelding was different, the way he was talked about was like he had won the supreme already.

Most people jumped on the bandwagon once the vibes had got out (Me being included) and took the gamble that he was the superstar that the hype suggested. Mins maiden hurdle was perhaps one of the most eagerly anticipated races outside of the festival with so much hope riding on him. It was to most people’s delight when he absolutely bolted up, showing a glimpse of what the hype was all about. However he was even more impressive next time out in beating a good yardstick in the Henry De Bromhead trained Attribution at Punchestown in the grade 2 Moscow flyer novices hurdle. The most impressive attribute regarding the 5 year old gelding is his jumping, he’s slick and accurate like a proper hurdler.

The problem is if I was to tip up a horse at 13/8 for a race as compeititve as the supreme I may as well give up now. Hes been impressive but doesn’t warrant such a short price so there is no value left regarding Min. With that in mind there are benefits of having a Willie Mullins trained hot pot in the race with the fact his opponents are underestimated, which is shown by the prices.

Altior who is trained by Nicky Henderson is next in the market around a 6/1 chance. He was mightily impressive last time out when giving Open Eagle a thumping at kempton on Boxing Day. This 6 year old gelding is unbeaten over hurdles in 4 starts and has improved for each run. The son of High Chaparral is not the flashy type like Min, he does all his best work when driven along, which isn’t a bad thing, as you know when push comes to shove he will keep finding. However I’d be surprised if he was good enough to win the supreme. Even at kempton he got slightly flat footed turning in to the home straight and he didn’t quicken immediately when the jockey asked him to go win his race. For those reasons I couldn’t back him as I think he will get left behind and perhaps stay on when it’s all too late.

The horse I feel that could serve it up to Min is Buveur D’Air. To show how much of an impression the son of Crillon has made you just have to look at is his rating of 154, which he has been allotted from only two runs. The 5 year old gelding couldn’t have been any more impressive on his debut over timber, where he showed a devastating turn of foot to make good horses look like claimers. That race has been franked on numerous occasions with 2nd, 3rd, 4th & 5th winning races since. This highly regard gelding has the right profile to go to the top over hurdles and I feel at 8/1 he rates as good value.

Tombstone is a horse I really like and the son of Robin Des Champs has shown a good level of form running into 2nd in two grade ones over in Ireland. However I feel he’s being aimed for the wrong race, as I believe he would be more suited by the Neptune.

Yorkhills plans seem to be up in the air even more so now after the surprise defeat Bellshill suffered in the Deloitte at leopardstown. The fact he’s as big as 50/1 on the exchanges for the supreme would make you think he’s destined for the Neptune so with that in mind he would be a swerve.

I do feel connections of Moon Racer are taking a big gamble throwing him straight into the Supreme on his first outing over timber. With no experience over hurdles it would be a very risky bet and not worth taking. No denying he would have a big chance on form if he was to be as slick and accurate as Min. He could perhaps be a bet for the inplay market after the first couple of hurdles to see how he jumps, but until then I couldn’t bet him.

From the remainder of the field one horse that tempts me at a big price is the Henry De Bromhead trained Supasundae. This son of Galileo ran a respectable race first time out over hurdles when coming third to Stone Hard. He had plenty of excuses that day as his jumping was very poor and would probably have struggled to jump over snooker cues let alone hurdles. His latest outing was where I was impressed most when he batterd 2014 champion bumper winner Silver Concorde. Even though his jumping was still to be desired it had improved considerably since his debut. The fact better ground and a strongly run race will hopefully iron out his jumping frailties his price of 20/1 seems good value.

Selections:

Buveur D’Air 8/1

Supasundae 20/1