sleeracing

With the Cheltenham festival less than 5 weeks away the anticipation of the first day is beginning to rise with bubbles being burst and reputations being increased. With the Cheltenham trials well underway this is the time of year where dreams come stuck or begin to become reality.

The Supreme Novices hurdle is the curtain raiser of the showpiece so there is no better place to start when it comes to Ante-post betting. In the last 3 seasons Willie Mullins has dominated this division with the likes of Vautour, Douvan & Champagne Fever. This season being no different with him training the Rich Ricci owned horse Min. There has been no secret about this son of Walk In the Park with him being the most talked about horse of the year. He hadn’t even jumped a hurdle in public and he was already 10/1 for the supreme. There is always normally one big hype horse in a season but this gelding was different, the way he was talked about was like he had won the supreme already.

Most people jumped on the bandwagon once the vibes had got out (Me being included) and took the gamble that he was the superstar that the hype suggested. Mins maiden hurdle was perhaps one of the most eagerly anticipated races outside of the festival with so much hope riding on him. It was to most people’s delight when he absolutely bolted up, showing a glimpse of what the hype was all about. However he was even more impressive next time out in beating a good yardstick in the Henry De Bromhead trained Attribution at Punchestown in the grade 2 Moscow flyer novices hurdle. The most impressive attribute regarding the 5 year old gelding is his jumping, he’s slick and accurate like a proper hurdler.

The problem is if I was to tip up a horse at 13/8 for a race as compeititve as the supreme I may as well give up now. Hes been impressive but doesn’t warrant such a short price so there is no value left regarding Min. With that in mind there are benefits of having a Willie Mullins trained hot pot in the race with the fact his opponents are underestimated, which is shown by the prices.

Altior who is trained by Nicky Henderson is next in the market around a 6/1 chance. He was mightily impressive last time out when giving Open Eagle a thumping at kempton on Boxing Day. This 6 year old gelding is unbeaten over hurdles in 4 starts and has improved for each run. The son of High Chaparral is not the flashy type like Min, he does all his best work when driven along, which isn’t a bad thing, as you know when push comes to shove he will keep finding. However I’d be surprised if he was good enough to win the supreme. Even at kempton he got slightly flat footed turning in to the home straight and he didn’t quicken immediately when the jockey asked him to go win his race. For those reasons I couldn’t back him as I think he will get left behind and perhaps stay on when it’s all too late.

The horse I feel that could serve it up to Min is Buveur D’Air. To show how much of an impression the son of Crillon has made you just have to look at is his rating of 154, which he has been allotted from only two runs. The 5 year old gelding couldn’t have been any more impressive on his debut over timber, where he showed a devastating turn of foot to make good horses look like claimers. That race has been franked on numerous occasions with 2nd, 3rd, 4th & 5th winning races since. This highly regard gelding has the right profile to go to the top over hurdles and I feel at 8/1 he rates as good value.

Tombstone is a horse I really like and the son of Robin Des Champs has shown a good level of form running into 2nd in two grade ones over in Ireland. However I feel he’s being aimed for the wrong race, as I believe he would be more suited by the Neptune.

Yorkhills plans seem to be up in the air even more so now after the surprise defeat Bellshill suffered in the Deloitte at leopardstown. The fact he’s as big as 50/1 on the exchanges for the supreme would make you think he’s destined for the Neptune so with that in mind he would be a swerve.

I do feel connections of Moon Racer are taking a big gamble throwing him straight into the Supreme on his first outing over timber. With no experience over hurdles it would be a very risky bet and not worth taking. No denying he would have a big chance on form if he was to be as slick and accurate as Min. He could perhaps be a bet for the inplay market after the first couple of hurdles to see how he jumps, but until then I couldn’t bet him.

From the remainder of the field one horse that tempts me at a big price is the Henry De Bromhead trained Supasundae. This son of Galileo ran a respectable race first time out over hurdles when coming third to Stone Hard. He had plenty of excuses that day as his jumping was very poor and would probably have struggled to jump over snooker cues let alone hurdles. His latest outing was where I was impressed most when he batterd 2014 champion bumper winner Silver Concorde. Even though his jumping was still to be desired it had improved considerably since his debut. The fact better ground and a strongly run race will hopefully iron out his jumping frailties his price of 20/1 seems good value.

Selections:

Buveur D’Air 8/1

Supasundae 20/1

 

The Welsh National is the highlight of the calendar year for Chepstow, so it is no surprise to see them resort to bringing the race forward on race day. With the weather forecast not favourable it could end up being a wise decision especially if the predicted rain arrives as there is every chance the card could get abandoned midway through.

This valuable Grade 3 handicap has a history of being won by a horse that relishes a stamina sapping test, with conditions likely to be very testing, this year will be no different with emphasis on stamina being crucial. As expected this years renewal is an ultra competitive field with 3 horses vying for favouritism at the top of the market at 9/1.

With plenty of pace upfront I’m sure the race will be ran at a high tempo, providing not only a proper stamina test but also a jumping test. With that in mind any horses with slight questions marks over there jumping may get found out early on, with the pace likely to be at its quickest in the early stage of the race.

The first of the favourites is second season chaser Cogry. This son of Kings Thearte ran a stormer first time out at the Paddy Power meeting where the 7 year old gelding was staying on strong to finish 4th, less than 3l behind the winner Sausalito Sunrise. In the same race Upswing finished 2nd a mere length in front of today’s selection, who re-opposes on 1lb worse terms, which might not seem a lot but the way Cogry was finishing off his race that day it would suggest that with a more testing race the form should be reversed. Another horse that re-opposes from the same race is Shotgun Paddy, who finished 1.5l behind Cogry. This 9 year old gelding is now 1lb better off with the selection, but with the way Cogry flashed past him up the testing hill of Cheltenham, would suggest he needs more of a swing in the weights to reverse form.

Last years winner Emperors choice will relish the underfoot conditions and with stamina being no question, this son of Flemensfirth seems to tick the right boxes. However he won last years race off 131 by a shd to re-opposing Benvolio, but is now 10lbs higher. With that hike in the weights putting him on a career high mark and the fact he’s 9, suggesting improvement is doubtful he will find it hard to retain his crown. Benvolio has now dropped back down to a mark of 139, which he ran off in last years renewal, meaning he is now 10lbs better off with Emperors choice for losing by a shd. However his recent form is nothing to shout about (PP5) so I wouldn’t even consider backing him with your money, let alone mine.

Mountanious has now dropped to the same mark he won the Welsh national on back in 2013, however he was 8 back then and for the fact this now 11 year old gelding hasn’t won a race since or even looked like winning I find it hard to suggest many positives, even if he is  joint favourite.

Tour Des Champs ran a cracking race last time out after being off the course for almost 21 months when staying on strongly to collar Top Wood near the finish. My concern for this son of Robin Des Champs would be the fact he had a very hard race after a lengthy absence and with that only being a month ago, I wouldn’t be convinced he can back that up in a tougher race.

Out of the remainder of the field Return Spring would be interesting if rediscovering his form. This 9 year old gelding looked a promising chaser in his first 3 races over the larger obstacles, but has ran disappointing ever since pulling up in a competitive handicap in January last year.

Selection: Cogry 9/1

Everything seems to be in favour for this 7 year old gelding, with the progressive profile to how well he stays. With the likelihood of the race being ran to suit this strong stayer, with them going hard upfront for him to then pick them off coming into the home straight, he looks sure to run a big race. With this race being the target all along I expect improvement from his first run of the season and testing conditions will not phase him having won at Chepstow on heavy last season.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The festive period has not disappointed this year throwing up plenty of cracking races, none more so than the King George, which was eventually battled out between the magnificent Vautour and the people’s favourite Cue Card. When turning in I’m sure everyone can admit they thought Vautour was going to put up a phenomenal performance an cruise to victory with the way he was travelling 3 out while the rest of the field were struggling to claw back the deficit, however it wasn’t to be as the 6 year old gelding was denied close home by the rejuvinated Cue Card.

It’s great to see Cue Card back to his best as I’m sure everyone can remember how good he was at his peak most notably the demolition job in the RyanAir back in 2013 where he was breathtaking. The last couple of seasons have been abit of hit and miss, with injury and performances suggesting his best racing days have come and gone, however the wind op he underwent in the summer seems to have done the trick and he is now only one race away from landing the jockey club chasing triple crown £1 million bonus, which would be fantastic for Colin Tizzard and connections. I do feel Cue Card isn’t getting quite the credit he deserves though as straight the way once the result was announced people were making excuses for Vautour saying he didn’t stay or he wasn’t at his best over this trip, but for me if Cue Card is back to his best then Vautour would have needed to improve on his novice form to beat the son of Kings Theatre, because that RyanAir performance for me was better then what Vautour did in the JLT. There wasn’t really anything to fault about Cue Cards performance on Boxing Day, as he jumped and travelled well and when the jockey asked for him to dig deep he duly obliged. Like most people in the last couple of seasons I didn’t think Cue Card would be suited by the stamina sapping race like the Gold Cup but this season he looks tailor made for it, needing every yard of the King George to get the better of Vautour. Not only the wind op but the fact he has learnt to settle in races has created this impression, as he is able to finish off his races over the longer distances instead of running on empty coming to the last. He’s also built up a great partnership with Paddy Brennan and they both seem to get the best out of each other in races, so the jockey also needs to take the plaudits for a career turning season for both of them. With the way Cue Card runs fresh it didn’t come as a surprise to me that he will be going straight to the Gold Cup as he’s had three tough races this season before the turn of the year and a freshen up will be beneficial.

For me Vautour lost nothing in defeat, in fact I feel he’s enhanced his reputation, the reason for this is very few have the capability to run over the three main distances and run big races at the highest level. I have no doubt if he ran in the Queen Mother, RyanAir or Gold cup he would have a big chance in all three, the last horse I can remember you could say that about was Kauto Star. I don’t think you can rule out a Gold Cup bid just yet from that run, although it is unlikely with the same connections owning the ante post favourite Djakadam. I couldn’t really give Vautour any excuses for the defeat, the fact he jumped to the left at most of the fences may have contributed slightly, but whether that would have changed the result I very much doubt. However when it comes to Cheltenham this son of Robin Des Champs seems to come into his element, with his best two performances barring the King George (Supreme & JLT) coming at the home of racing. If he can improve again from this performance like he has done in previous seasons at Cheltenham then wherever he goes he will have a massive chance. In my opinion I feel they need to give 3 mile another go before deciding which race to go for at the festival, possibly the Irish Hennesey as long as the ground isn’t to testing.

Perhaps the main question from the race is where Don Cossack would have finished if he hadn’t had fallen 2 out. The fact he is a guaranteed stayer over the trip and he seemed to be getting the better of Cue Card before he came down you would have to say he would have gone on to win, but at the end of the day if you don’t jump you won’t win. For anyone who has backed this 8 year old gelding for the Gold Cup I would take a lot of encouragement from his performance because of how the race panned out in the earlier stages with an early mistake, not great positioning and he never seemed to be travelling 100% with Bryan Cooper niggling the Giggingstown owned gelding every so often throughout the race, for him then to be upsides with Cue Card coming to the second last says a lot of the horse. I would expect him to run again before Cheltenham as I don’t think anyone would like to send there horse to the big festival straight after a fall.

Out of the three I would say Don Cossack would be the one to take out of the race as I don’t believe the tight track of Kempton would suit this son of Sholokhov and all roads should lead to the big showpiece in March.

From the remainder of the field Al Ferof yet again ran a creditable race coming third for the third consecutive year, all being well it looks like the RyanAir would be the most likely target for him and I’m sure trainer and connections would be hoping Vautour goes elsewhere.

I was slightly disappointed with the way Smad Place was ridden as he was at his best when ridden bold and positively at the front in the Hennesey, so for him to be held back was surprising and in the end he never really got himself into a winning position.

I think silviniaco Conti’s performance should probably be forgiven due to the form of the stable. He seemed to be travelling and jumping well but once Vautour took the lead from him it was curtains, as the 9 year old gelding began to track back more and more as the race started to heat up, so much so jockey Noel Fehily took the decision to pull the son of Dom Alco up before 3 out. The rumours around the stable suggest that the National is the main target for him now and I’m sure Paul will be hopping BHA handicapper Phil Smith is lenient on his horse after his lacklustre display in the King George.

Irish Cavalier proved he wasn’t up to grade 1 standards finishing around 40 lengths behind the winner. The writing on the wall was clear a long way out for this 6 year old gelding as he was held up throughout the race and wasn’t always fluent at his jumps and the standard of race began to take its toll when he began to struggle at the 14th. Same can be said for Ballynagour who struggled to get on terms from the word go and was pulled up at the 12th.

Valseur lido was going to finish 5th if he hadn’t had fallen at the last and even though this son of Anzillero wasn’t good enough to contest at the top level, there could be a handicap for him in the near future if he drops a few lbs for his display in the King George.